Ryan Phillips – NBC 6 South Florida

The 2005 hurricane season was an extreme example of a powerful atmospheric phenomenon that was simultaneously accompanied by enormous exhaustion for all who had to endure it. One storm after another formed, resulting in a historic accumulation of systems (28) and, in rare cases, the use of an additional list of names just to reach the end of the season.

The year 2005 is still well remembered by Floridians as two storms caused severe damage in South Florida: Katrina in the east and Wilma in the west.

Fast forward 15 years and we had a hurricane season that had all the right ingredients come together to produce more storms (30) with more landfalls on the Gulf Coast than in 2005. This historic season took place against the backdrop of an ongoing global pandemic. We weren't in uncharted territory! 2020 was a season to remember, even if the impact in South Florida was minimal.

In my opinion, in 2005, it was seemingly easier to communicate weather information clearly and through a single channel. Television, radio, print media and media websites were the norm and remained the first and best way to consume weather information.

In 2020, social media showed its strengths as a powerful communication tool. But then it became a problematic medium for effective threat communication.

This isn't a monologue lamenting traditional media versus social media, but in 2005, it was certainly easier to deliver an important weather report, get to the point, and not get lost in a sea of ​​voices claiming to have “information.”

The problem with these “new” media outlets is that at worst, the stories are exaggerated speculations without any scientific basis, at best, they are half-hearted attempts to get a good point across but with missing elements, and with little or no accountability.

Professional meteorologists don't want to waste their time chasing down poorly informed or just plain bad reports, but sometimes we have no choice but to keep the fire extinguisher in hand for clarity.

In recent weeks, cries of a “busted season” have been heard in the arenas frequented by weather fans. Remember, it's not always the loudest voices, but the persistent ones that draw the crowds.

I know Nostradamus can't help us this last week of August, and I would really like to drop Walter Mercado a line to ask for his help. But as it stands, I'm left with a few important reminders to share with you as we're now in the midst of the season. Here they are:

• The basic state of the atmosphere continues to favor tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Even though sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content are not everything, they are crucial. And they are about to form. La Niña will be discussed at some point, but even today's “neutral” state has potential.

• The climatology of the Atlantic Basin will do it. The six-month season is only halfway over. You think it's over after five storms and August ends as quiet as the local library? Any week of any season with a break is welcome.

• Yes, Saharan Air has had a deterrent effect so far. But at this point it is less likely to act as an obstacle and should not be relied upon to slow development.

• Sure, the seasonal forecasts for 2024, which predict 17 to 23 storms, could all be skewed… and maybe that's why there's a sense of doom: After three months, five named storms, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) rating of 55, this is not a quiet season.

• We have a short-term memory for how the period from September to November can and does unfold. As a refresher, let me remind you that in 2017 there were seven hurricanes in the second half of the season, in 2022 there were eight, and in 2020 there were ten.

Storms will arise!

I urge you to reach out to trusted voices in the coming weeks.

I hope South Florida is not part of the story of 2024. Be that as it may, despite the low activity levels in late August and the distant cries that the year is a bust…

There will be a season.