Democrats are concerned as Trump has the edge in contested Sun Belt areas

A New York Times/A Siena College poll released Monday shows Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona, 50% to 45%, Georgia, 49% to 45% and North Carolina, 49% to 47%.

Trump’s lead in Arizona and North Carolina is Reversals from the last polls in these states by pollsters in AugustHarris is ahead of Trump by five percentage points in Arizona (50% to 45%) and two percentage points in North Carolina (49% to 47%). As of the last poll, Trump has a 4% lead in the Peach State.

The former president also holds clues in the RealClearPolitics Polling averages across all three states, with North Carolina having its narrowest lead at 47.8% to 47.4%. The national polling average has Harris ahead of Trump at 49.4% to 47.2%.

Trump won Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina en route to the presidency in 2016, but lost Arizona and Georgia in an unsuccessful re-election bid in 2020. North Carolina has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate only twice since 1968 – in 1976 and 2008.

The positive numbers for Trump also come as Democrats are reportedly concerned that polls may underestimate the former president, as was the case in 2016 and 2020. Several Democrats have expressed concern that there may be another underestimation of Trump's support in swing states, according to a report by the hill.

“The poll numbers have really suffered seriously since 2016. And that's one of the truths: Trump is going to crack down in Pennsylvania, and that's absolutely true,” Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) told the news agency.

Polls during the 2016 election showed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ahead, and many did not take Trump's candidacy seriously. After the election, politicians and analysts acknowledged that they had not relied on poll numbers that did not take into account unlikely voters or white men without college degrees.

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Harris' 2.2% lead in the RealClearPolitics The national polling average against Trump is smaller than Clinton’s lead of 3% at this point in 2016 and President Joe Biden’s lead of 7.1% at this point in 2020. Trump also has a stronger lead in the RealClearPolitics Polling averages in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia than at this time in 2020.

Given Trump's better poll numbers this year compared to previous elections, this appears to be his best chance to win a majority of the vote, something he failed to do in his victorious 2016 campaign.