Future Tropical Storm Helene – Risk of Hurricane in Florida

Tropical Storm Helene is expected to form in the western Caribbean and could strengthen into a powerful hurricane before reaching Florida or the northern Gulf Coast later this week.

Those interested in the US Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the situation closely, keep abreast of the weather forecast for the coming days and have appropriate hurricane plans ready.

Where it is right now: There is an extensive low pressure system in the western Caribbean. In this area, thunderstorms are gradually becoming more organized.

It is called “Invest 97L,” a convention used by the National Hurricane Center to identify features it monitors for future developments.

The NHC has also scheduled its first Hurricane Hunter mission to the Western Caribbean this afternoon.

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Here's when a storm might form and where it might go:

– Monday-Tuesday: The latest computer forecast models indicate that a tropical depression or storm could form as early as late Monday or Tuesday. By late Tuesday, Helene could approach Cancun, Cozumel, and western Cuba as a tropical storm or even a Category 1 hurricane. Locally heavy rains and strong wind gusts are possible in these areas.

– Wednesday: Helene could have some lingering impacts in Cancun, Cozumel, and western Cuba, especially early on. We then expect Helene to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico, most likely as a hurricane. Some high surf and outer rainbands could reach parts of the Florida Gulf Coast from the Keys to the Panhandle.

– Friday: This system will most likely continue inland with weakening winds, but will cause localized flooding rain in parts of the Southeast.

How strong could it be: Helene could develop into an extremely strong hurricane in the Gulf.

That's because heat content is a favorable component for intensification, and the map below shows that there is plenty of deep, warm water in the northwestern Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, the Gulf of Mexico's heat content has reached a record high for this time of year, according to tropical scientist Brian McNoldy of the University of Miami.

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But it's not just warm water.

Some forecast models suggest that upper-level winds may spread across Helene, favoring strengthening rather than shearing and tipping Helene's circulation.

For these reasons, Helene could reach intensity 3 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall.

Precipitation potential: It is too early to predict additional impacts, including storm surge and winds, but we expect Helene to produce heavy rainfall generally along its path and to the east.

Parts of the Southeast are expected to see the heaviest rainfall Thursday through Friday, but some heavy rain bands could arrive as early as Wednesday. This rain could cause flash flooding, especially if it coincides with storm surge and is over higher ground.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Contact him at X (formerly Twitter), Topics, on facebook. And Blue sky.