The results of the state election: The data from Brandenburg at a glance

The outcome of the state election in Brandenburg is clear: the SPD, led by incumbent Prime Minister Woidke, is narrowly ahead. The AfD remains in second place – contrary to what the polls suggested. The CDU falls behind the BSW. The Greens fail to return to the state parliament.

According to the preliminary official results, the SPD narrowly won the state election in Brandenburg, but in all likelihood faces a difficult time forming a government. After all votes have been counted, the Social Democrats received 30.9 percent. The AfD, on the other hand, achieved strong gains of just 29.2 percent. This means that the right-wing party remains the second strongest force in Brandenburg – contrary to what many observers had expected beforehand.

Brandenburg's incumbent Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke reacted with cautious optimism shortly after the polling stations closed. From the outset, it had been the SPD's goal “to prevent our country from getting a big brown stamp,” he said in the evening, referring to the first forecasts in which the SPD was just ahead of the AfD.

Note: The infographics on the state elections are constantly updated.

In Brandenburg, the Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) coalition, which was running for the first time, came in third place with 13.5 percent. The CDU followed in fourth place. With 12.1 percent, the Christian Democrats achieved their worst result to date in a state election in the eastern German state. CDU top candidate Jan Redmann reacted disappointedly. “It is a bitter evening for us as the CDU, because according to the first forecasts, we are doing far below our expectations,” he said. CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann even spoke of a “bitter defeat.”

BSW co-leader Amira Mohamed Ali, on the other hand, spoke of a great success for her party. The “peace policy” was an important topic for the BSW. However, the BSW's participation in the state parliament's government depends on real change. It will not be easy to give a few posts a share in the government. “We won't do that.”

The Greens, the Left, the FDP and the Free Voters failed to clear the five percent hurdle and did not win a single direct mandate that would have helped them enter the state parliament. According to the preliminary election results, the Greens are at 4.1 percent, well below the decisive threshold.

The Left Party plummeted in popularity and after the BSW split only received just under 3.0 percent. The Left Party's heavy losses had already become apparent beforehand. The Federal Chair of the Left Party, Janine Wissler, described her party's failure in the state elections in Brandenburg as a “turning point”.

The fact that the Left Party failed to return to the state parliament was “very bitter,” said Wissler. At the same time, she was convinced overall “that the Left Party can be saved.”

The Free Voters performed significantly worse in Brandenburg than in the previous state election in 2019, securing only just under 2.6 percent of the vote this time. The FDP did not play a major role in Brandenburg. The Liberals' share of the vote – at the federal level, they are part of the governing coalition – was only 0.8 percent in Brandenburg. The polls before the election had indicated strong gains for the AfD and the BSW, which was only founded last autumn. The Social Democrats were recently seen at just 27 percent in the polls.

With regard to the upcoming formation of a government in Brandenburg, a lot depends on how many parties actually make it into the state parliament. The Greens in particular were hoping until late on election night that they would still be able to get into the state parliament via the basic mandate clause anchored in Brandenburg's electoral law: a direct mandate in a single constituency is enough in Brandenburg to bypass the five percent hurdle.

According to pollsters, there was a good chance that the Greens would be re-elected, but ultimately it was not enough to win such a direct mandate, even in the urban constituency “Potsdam I” in the state capital.

The Left Party, the Brandenburg United Citizens' Movement (BVB) and the Free Voters (FW) – previously active together as the BVB/FW group below the parliamentary group threshold in the Potsdam state parliament – had an even harder time with direct mandates than the Greens. Ultimately, all constituency victories went to either the AfD or the SPD.

During the election campaign, Brandenburg's Prime Minister Woidke and Chancellor Olaf Scholz had clearly shown that the Social Democrats could win the state election on September 22. Woidke repeatedly reminded people that the AfD had a lead in polls in 2019, but that the SPD was still the strongest force in the end. SPD top politician Scholz supported his party colleague in the state election campaign from afar. The state politician refrained from making joint appearances with the Chancellor.

Nevertheless, there was great support from Berlin: “I am sure that the people of Brandenburg will give him a new mandate and elect the SPD as the strongest party,” said Scholz, referring to Woidke and the state elections. Scholz's federal constituency is also in Brandenburg.

What the new majority situation in the Potsdam state parliament will look like will only be decided after all the votes have been counted. A provisional official result is expected on election night. As always, voter turnout will have a major influence on the election result. In the last state election five years ago, 61.3 percent of those eligible to vote voted.

This was significantly more than the previous low of 47.9 percent in 2014 and the third highest turnout rate in all previous state elections in Brandenburg since 1990. This time, according to the preliminary counting results, voter turnout was higher than ever before at 72.9 percent.

In the Potsdam state parliament, Woidke has previously led a red-black-green coalition government with the CDU and the Greens. The SPD politician is the third state premier in Brandenburg since reunification. What Woidke's future coalition will look like is still open.

In the event of an AfD election victory, Woidke had already announced his resignation in advance – and has repeatedly confirmed this announcement. “If the AfD comes in first place, I cannot continue as Prime Minister,” said Woidke. “Of course I will then draw the consequences.” His clear election goal is to beat the AfD in the election on September 22nd.

Woidke had also ruled out coalition negotiations with the BSW in advance – provided that BSW party leader Sahra Wagenknecht was directly involved. “The BSW is a black box,” said Woidke. “We have to wait and see whether it is even willing to talk, whether cooperation would be possible or not.”

For him, it is “unimaginable,” says Woidke, that “things in Brandenburg will go the way they are now being discussed in Saxony and Thuringia, that Mrs Wagenknecht wants to help steer the country's destiny as a one-person company from the Saarland.”

The strength of the parliamentary groups in the state parliament is determined by the proportion of valid second votes. “The personnel composition is determined first by the direct mandates won and then by the order of the respective state lists,” says the state election officer.

Due to compensatory and overhang mandates, the number of MPs can theoretically increase to a maximum of 110. What the situation and the size of the parliamentary groups in the Potsdam state parliament will ultimately look like will only be known with the official final result, which the election officer Josef Nussbaum is expected to announce at around 11 a.m. the day after the election in a specially arranged press conference.

The Potsdam state parliament normally has 88 seats. According to the Brandenburg state election law, half of the mandate is awarded by direct mandate (first vote) through personalized majority voting in the 44 constituencies. The remaining 44 mandates are filled from the state lists of the parties based on the results of the proportional representation (second vote).

In addition to the names of the constituency candidates, the ballot paper included a total of 14 state lists of the parties, political associations and list associations registered for the election. In the state election, each voter can make a total of two crosses.

The combination of majority and proportional representation is well known: two votes are awarded by ticking a box, a first vote for the election of a candidate in the constituency (direct mandate) and a second vote for the election of a list of a party or political association (list mandate).

All residents of the state with German citizenship and permanent residence in Brandenburg aged 16 and over were eligible to vote in the state election. According to official figures, the number of first-time voters is around 100,000.

In the outgoing state parliament, the SPD was the strongest faction with 25 representatives, the AfD with 23 and the CDU with 15. Alliance 90/The Greens and the Left Party were each represented by 10 representatives. The Brandenburg group “BVB / Free Voters” provided five representatives. In total, the state parliament has thus far been made up of six factions.