Storm vs. Aces: Prediction, odds and key players to watch for 1st WNBA playoff game

The late-night duel of the WNBA playoffs takes place in Las Vegas as the Las Vegas Aces, the two-time champions, begin their title defense against the Seattle Storm.

Seattle won the first meeting between these teams in the regular season, but the Aces won the last three meetings to secure fourth place ahead of the Storm.

A key aspect of this game is the status of Storm forward/center Ezi Magbegor, who has missed the last few games with a concussion. If she were to sit out, it would be a major blow to Seattle's frontcourt. Magbegor is averaging 11.7 points and 8.0 rebounds per game this season.

The Aces have what it takes to be champions and have the league's most valuable player in A'ja Wilson to make a splash this postseason. The bookies have them eight points ahead of Sunday night's game.

In the four meetings between these teams during the regular season, Las Vegas recorded two double-digit wins and one by a five-point margin.

Let's break down the odds, key players to watch, and the best pick for Game 1 of the Storm-Aces series.

Opportunities via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Money line

In total

Report on storm damage

Aces Injury Report

Seattle Storm

Skylar Diggins Smith: Since the Olympic break, Diggins-Smith has been one of the best guards in the WNBA. In the last 15 games of the regular season, she averaged 18.5 points, 6.3 assists and 2.3 rebounds per game and shot 47.6 percent from the field. In her last game against the Aces in the regular season, the star guard scored 17 points and nine dimes.

Las Vegas Aces

A’ja Wilson: Wilson, who won the WNBA MVP award on Sunday, finished the regular season averaging 26.9 points, 11.9 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game. She scored 21 or more points in all four meetings with Seattle in 2024. Can we bet on A'ja Wilson? Stay tuned.

As for the selection of teams in this duel, I tend to go for the defending champions, but I don't think that's the best option in this duel.

No, the best bet you can place is the insane value of Wilson's points prop.

I mean, are we serious about this line (25.5) for Wilson?

The 2024 league MVP is averaging 26.9 points per game this season, scoring 21, 24, 27 and 29 in four games against the Storm.

Having Ezi Magbegor on the bench in this game is a major blow to the Storm's frontcourt defense and should help Wilson score at a high level.

In 38 regular season games, Wilson scored 26 or more points 25 times, meaning she hit the OVER on that line more than 65 percent of the time.

Seattle finished the regular season with the third-most points allowed in the penalty box per game and finished only seventh in defensive rating over the last 15 games.

Wilson will hit the ground running in Game 1 at home.

Tip: A'ja Wilson OVER 25.5 points (-120)

The odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.