Weakened and infiltrated by Israel, Hezbollah is at an existential crossroads

Beirut, Lebanon
CNN
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An Israeli airstrike reduces a nine-story apartment building in a southern suburb of Beirut to a huge pile of rubble. A man covered in dust kicks lifelessly in the arms of a paramedic. A corpse in a body bag is hurled past parked ambulances on the back seat of a quad bike.

The catastrophic aftermath of the attack is tinged with suspicion. Hezbollah members dressed in civilian clothes snatch the cellphones of people taking photos and demand that they be deleted. “Get your cellphones out of here!” one woman screams.

It was the darkest hour for the Iran-backed Hezbollah. A meeting of the commanders of the elite Radwan unit in the basement of a residential building was destroyed by Israeli warplanes.

At least 45 people, including women and children, were killed, as well as 16 Hezbollah fighters, including Radwan force leader Ibrahim Aqil and commander-in-chief Ahmad Wehbe.

Just two days earlier, hundreds of walkie-talkies belonging to the Lebanese militant group had detonated within a minute. A day earlier, thousands of exploding Hezbollah pagers had maimed hundreds of people. In total, at least 80 people have been killed in attacks since Tuesday. Most were Hezbollah members, but women and children are also among the victims.

Now the Middle East's most formidable non-state force is reeling from the biggest blow to its military structure, as well as the most visible Israeli infiltration of its ranks and communications infrastructure, in its more than 40-year history. The internal rupture enabled this week's back-to-back strikes and sowed panic within Hezbollah, Lebanese security sources said.

Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi gave an impassioned speech at a press conference on Saturday, declaring that the country was in the midst of an Israeli “incursion” and announcing increased surveillance of “foreigners, hotels and Syrian camps.”

The enemy's firepower had tracked Hezbollah to its hiding place, attacking both the base and the military leadership.

Militarily weakened and stripped of its cloak of secrecy, Hezbollah has entered the most delicate phase of its decades-long struggle against Israel. It had hoped that a small-scale battle on the border on behalf of the Palestinians would strengthen Hamas's position in negotiations, but a ceasefire in Gaza seems elusive than ever. Now its limited confrontation with Israel has exacted a seemingly unlimited price on the militant group.

Yet the urge to strike has rarely been greater and has brought the region even closer to the brink of catastrophic war.

In his most important statement since the Israeli airstrike on Friday, Hezbollah deputy commander Naim Qassem announced “a new chapter” in the clashes, which he described as a “fight without borders.”

Hezbollah's retaliatory strike in the early hours of Sunday appeared to be its most intense attack since clashes began on the Israeli-Lebanese border last October. The group said it attacked the Ramat David air base in southeastern Haifa and the Rafael armaments site north of Haifa. The Israeli military did not respond to questions about whether the site was hit, but officials confirmed direct hits nearby.

This was one of Hezbollah's heaviest attacks since the last open war between Lebanon and Israel in 2006. The group also said it had used new rockets called Fadi-1 and Fadi-2, which are believed to be medium-range missiles. If confirmed, this would be one of the first times Hezbollah has fired weapons outside its short-range arsenal.

The group hopes to have restored some of its deterrent power and to force an end to the “new chapter” in Israel’s fight against Hezbollah.

What is certain is that there are new unwritten rules for interaction between Hezbollah and Israel. Until a few months ago, it was believed that an Israeli attack in Beirut would provoke a retaliatory strike by Hezbollah in a major Israeli city. After Israel killed a Hamas leader in southern Beirut in January, this turned out not to be true. Since then, Israel has attacked the Lebanese capital five times.

Hours before the Israeli airstrike on Friday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called the attacks on the wireless devices “unprecedented and serious.” The group had lost this battle, he seemed to say, but not the war.

Hezbollah supporters are trying to put on a brave face. “War is like a boxing match. One day you win, the next you lose,” Hussein said at the funeral of three Hezbollah fighters killed in the attack on Friday.

“We are strong in our faith… We are all ready to shed blood for Nasrallah.”