Last-minute thoughts and final result forecast

Fall is here, even though it felt like mid-summer in Michigan for most of the last week. The nights are getting cooler and the sun's warming power is no longer as high.

That lack of offensive power has already affected the Detroit Lions. Ben Johnson's unit has gained yards almost at will, but converting those yards into points has been like an early frost; it's nice until you have to scrape it off the windshield and the hoodie and shorts you're wearing feel way colder than they need to.

The Lions travel to Arizona to try to stop the scoring machine. Spoiler alert: Today is the real kick-off.

Why I believe the Lions will win

The offense was excellent until it reached the red zone, where the opposing defense did a really good job inside the 20-yard line (actually the 25) of crowding the middle of the field and forcing QB Jared Goff to fumble the ball on his first attempt. Aside from the gritty overtime touchdown drive by RB David Montgomery and the offensive line in Week 1, defenses have been superior to Johnson's offense.

I don't think the Cardinals can do that with their defense. Aside from Dennis Gardeck, Arizona's pass rush isn't one to intimidate the offense. Their cornerbacks, led by Starling Thomas, who was cut by the Lions in 2023, aren't tenacious in coverage, nor are they particularly disruptive.

Let's play the “don't think too much” card: Starling Thomas starts at fullback for the Cardinals. This is the same Starling Thomas who didn't make the CB-desperate Lions a year ago (Detroit kept Steven Gilmore and Kindle Vildor ahead of him). He has actually shown some improved skills and certainly has terminal speed, but it's unlikely Thomas would be active on game days in Detroit.

On defense, the Lions have a good running back in Arizona's James Conner and a complementary running back in rookie Trey Benson. They're an impressive one-two punch, although that's been more theory than practice in the first two weeks. Detroit's ability to shut down running backs is the foundation for their rise on defense. The Cardinals' line is good at blocking runs, but I'm still confident in Detroit's combination of DJ Reader and Alim McNeill and a strong running back corps behind them to control the whole thing.

Speaking of running…

I think this is a game where Ben Johnson and his plays come out right. If Montgomery can get six yards per carry behind the snowplow of an offensive line, I believe Johnson won't give that up as foolishly as he did this year. I also believe Dan Campbell won't let Johnson stray from what works to score style points. This team needs actually Points, not style.

Detroit's pass rush has been outstanding and the “crush the can” style of big EDGEs Aidan Hutchinson, Levi Onwuzurike and Marcus Davenport can be very effective against a more finesse-based Cards tackling combination. Led by Hutchinson, this pass rush can stop the edges on their way to the quarterback and also opens up opportunities for slot blitzes, which proved very effective against the Cardinals.

What worries me about the Cardinals

Two words: Kyler Murray.

Don't mistake Murray for a running threat only. The Cardinals' young quarterback has evolved as a passer, showing better timing and ball placement than in the past. He can win from the pocket as long as the line keeps him clean, like Jared Goff.

Unlike Goff, Murray is one of the NFL's best escape artists and runners. Detroit's defense has always been vulnerable to quarterbacks who can duck and run, and I don't think that will change against Murray and the Cardinals. He could easily get 100 yards on the ground, and that leads to a number of read-option runs and quick passes that can send defenses spinning.

Murray also has a couple of impressive targets in rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and TE Trey McBride. Harrison versus fellow first-round pick Terrion Arnold is a top-notch rookie matchup, and I expect both to pick up some wins in this matchup. McBride is filling Sam LaPorta's role in Arizona, and doing so much more effectively than Lions fans might expect given his low profile.

Predicting the final result

I see the Lions' tremendous yards on offense finally turning into points on the scoreboard. I think it will benefit them greatly to travel, play in all white and focus on what has gone well so far. Arizona will force Aaron Glenn's defense to score more than 20 points. I think Detroit's offense will score more points than the defense allows.

Lions 36, Cardinals 31