Two favorites and one underdog to bet on on Saturday

Arizona State's 3-0 start is due to luck on fourth downs (5 of 6) and turnovers (difference of 6).

The overrated Sun Devils probably would have lost to Texas State last week if it weren't for three costly turnovers by the Bobcats.

Conversely, Texas Tech is probably undervalued after a fortunate loss to Washington State in Week 2.

The Red Raiders had a nearly 100-yard lead over the Cougars, but were intimidated by four turnovers and a 1-for-5 performance on fourth down.

Even though Cam Skattebo is one of the best running backs in the country, I still don't believe in Sam Leavitt and the Sun Devils passing attack, which doesn't rank in the top 100 nationally in EPA per dropback.

That will hurt on Saturday, as Texas Tech's secondary is far more vulnerable than its front seven.

Nor do I believe in Arizona State's secondary, which ranks 87th nationally in Pro Football Focus' coverage ratings and 97th in pass success rate allowed.

That will be a problem on Saturday, as Zach Kittley runs an explosive pass-first offense and Behran Morton is making an excellent start (66% passing rate, 974 yards, 10 touchdowns, two interceptions).

Choose: Texas Tech-3.5.

Rutgers (+3.5) over VIRGINIA TECH

The Hokies have an excellent defensive line that supports Brent Pry's aggressive, Havoc-focused pass defense.

But Greg Schiano's team is built to withstand pressure.

The Scarlet Knights are consistently one of the best attacking teams in Havoc, dominating the game and defending the ball with experienced attacking lines.

Anyone who can withstand the Hokies' pressure can exploit their porous rush defense – Virginia Tech ranks 94th nationally in EPA per rush allowed.

Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt's hybrid triple option collected 180 rushing yards against the Hokies in a massive upset in Week 1.

I believe Athan Kaliakmanis, Kyle Monangai and Rutgers can do something similar.

In contrast, Virginia Tech's offense does not seem as consistent and dynamic as expected.

The Hokies fail to develop a sufficiently sustainable attacking dynamic from one down to the next (95th nationally in success rate), instead relying exclusively on the long throws of the Kyron Drones (5th in explosiveness).

That won't work against Rutgers, which has a top-notch, experienced secondary that ranks among the top 15 units in Pro Football Focus' EPA for dropbacks allowed, pass success rate allowed and coverage ratings.

Utah (-2.5) against OKLAHOMA STATE

Cam Rising will play in Stillwater on Saturday, which should be enough for the Utes to win away in the Big 12.

Although I had high hopes for the Cowboys earlier in the year, I'm worried about them after their inconsistent performance against Arkansas in Week 2.

They won after a wild comeback in the second overtime, but should have lost as the Hogs lost 650 total yards on offense and held the Pokes to 380.

Betting on college football?

Taylen Green hurt Oklahoma State's secondary (8.5 yards per dropback) and the Razorbacks' defensive line overwhelmed reigning Doak Award winner Ollie Gordon (49 yards on 17 attempts, 2.9 YPC, 24% completion rate), turning Oklahoma State's strength into a weakness.

If the Cowboys failed to run the ball against Arkansas, they will likely do even worse against Utah.

And if the Cowboys can't stop Green, they'll have an even worse chance against Rising.

Last week: 1-2. LSU (N), Washington (N), Indiana (W)
Season 2024: 3–6.

Why you can bet on the New York Post

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a diehard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, Miami Marlins, and all underdogs. He lost on the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by winning the NL Cy Young with 40/1 underdog odds on Sandy Alcantara.