Tennessee vs. Oklahoma score prediction by an expert football model

The top game of the early SEC football schedule and No. 15 Oklahoma's conference debut comes this weekend when the Sooners welcome No. 6 Tennessee on Saturday for Week 4 college football action.

Big Orange has destroyed everything in its reach through three games, outscoring its opponents 191 to 13. It ranks first nationally in scoring with an average of 63.7 points per game, third in yardage and third in the FBS in scoring defense behind one of the best front-seven lineups in the country.

And while the Vols face a tougher task against the Sooners, the home team has played some close games against unranked opponents over the past two weeks.

Oklahoma fought its way to a surprise 16-12 win over weaker Houston, scoring just two points in the second half of the game and leading Tulane by five points in the fourth quarter before scoring ten unanswered points, including a 24-yard touchdown run by quarterback Jackson Arnold.

OU needs to make a statement here and show the SEC that it belongs, especially with a schedule that will become increasingly difficult as the season progresses.

What can we expect from this weekend’s duel?

To do that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Tennessee and Oklahoma compare in this Week 4 college football game.

The simulations favor the away team in this SEC opener, but in a close game.

SP+ predicts Tennessee to defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 30-23 and win the game by a projected 7.1 point margin.

The model gives the Volunteers a 67 percent chance of a clear victory over the Sooners.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency in college football” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a winning percentage of 52.4.

Tennessee is the favorite by 7.5 points against Oklahoma, according to odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, where the total for the game has been set at 56.5.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for a straight win for Tennessee at -285 and for Oklahoma at +230.

When using this projection to bet on the game, here are some things to consider…

Other analysis models predict a road win for the Vols in this SEC opener.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and select winners.

Tennessee emerges as the likely winner in a majority of 71.3 percent of updated computer simulations.

This leaves Oklahoma as the likely winner in the remaining 28.7 percent of sims.

The index predicts that Tennessee will outperform Oklahoma on the same field by 8.4 points, enough for the Vols to make up the difference.

Tennessee ranks third among SEC teams with a 71.9 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoffs and will win 10.3 games this season, according to FPI statistics.

This model assumes that the Sooners will win seven games and that their chance of making the 12-team playoffs is 14.5 percent.

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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