Polls show Colorado's all-candidate primary and ranked-choice general election are close to being passed

Colorado voters are close to approving a bill in their November ballot that would change most of the state's primaries to pit candidates from all parties against each other, with the four candidates with the most votes advancing to a ranked-choice general election.

That's according to a poll commissioned by Colorado Voters First, the organization that supports Proposition 131. The survey was conducted among 800 likely voters from August 28 to September 1 by Colorado-based Keating Research, a Democratic firm known for accurately predicting election outcomes. The poll's margin of error was 3.5 percentage points.

56 percent of respondents said they would vote “yes,” with a further 8 percent leaning toward “yes.” 21 percent would vote “no,” with a further 4 percent leaning toward “no.” Eleven percent said they were unsure how they would vote or were completely undecided.

In ranked choice voting, also called instant runoff voting, voters rank candidates in order of preference. If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first-vote votes, they are declared the winner. If no candidate reaches that threshold, the candidates with the fewest first-vote supporters are eliminated. The process continues until a candidate receives more than 50% of the total votes. (This video explains the process in more detail.)

However, if the initiative is passed, it will not go into effect immediately – if at all. The reason for this is a controversial clause in Senate Bill 210, which was passed by the House this year.

The clause requires 12 Colorado municipalities in districts of a certain size and with a certain demographic composition to use ranked choice voting before ranked choice voting can be used in a race for state or federal office. In addition, the amendment states that Colorado cannot switch to the new primary system until this requirement is met.

Gov. Jared Polis nearly vetoed Senate Bill 210, a more comprehensive election bill, because of the clause, which was added in the final days of the General Assembly legislative session and first made public by The Colorado Sun. Polis said the provision potentially violates the state constitution — and is at least designed to thwart the will of voters. Polis wrote in a statement explaining his decision to sign the bill that he believes statewide ranked-choice voting can be implemented in Colorado by 2028. He vowed to bring state leaders together to make that happen.

While the Keating poll is a bit dated, it still makes a strong case for the measure as Election Day approaches. And with Colorado Voters First planning to spend millions of dollars on ads to bolster support for Proposition 131 and not dedicating much money to fighting the initiative, those numbers for supporters could only grow.

Colorado Voters First had raised $8.4 million by Sept. 11 and spent $6.15 million of it. Kent Thiry, the wealthy former CEO of Denver-based dialysis giant DaVita and a key proponent of Proposition 131, had donated $1.4 million to the committee by Sept. 11. Unite America, a Denver-based election reform nonprofit, had donated $4.7 million to the committee by Sept. 11.

Thiry is co-chair of the board of Unite America, a nonprofit that does not disclose its donors.

Voter Rights Colorado, a group backed by a number of progressive organizations opposed to Proposition 131, had raised $35,000 by Sept. 11 and spent $10,000 of it. Much of the funding came from a nonprofit that does not disclose its donors.

“We take nothing for granted, but thanks to the early advertising we used to get our measure out to voters, support for Prop 131 is well over 60%,” Monica Burton, a spokeswoman for Colorado Voters First, said in a written statement. “There is still a long way to go and we are not taking our foot off the gas pedal, but it is clear that voters are yearning for political change that gives all Coloradans a voice and a vote that counts in our elections.”

In a further boost to Proposition 131 supporters, Polis endorsed the measure on Thursday.

“Although Colorado has one of the best voter protection laws and jurisdictions in the country, no voting system is perfect. I think runoff voting is better than our current system because it gives voters more choices,” the Democrat wrote in a Facebook post. “I am confident that if passed, it will encourage voter turnout and improve our democracy.”

The Keating poll did not include any statements about the measure before respondents were read the 157-word ballot proposal and asked how they would vote on it. There was a message test, but that came later in the polling process.

Colorado Voters First has not released the results of the messaging tests it conducted, but a spokesperson said that “support for Prop 131 increased after testing the pro and con messaging.”

44% of respondents were unaffiliated, 29% were Democrats and 26% were Republicans, roughly equivalent to voter registration in Colorado.

Poll respondents were also asked if they think things are going in the right direction or the wrong direction in Colorado. Forty-five percent said things are going in the right direction, while 47 percent said they are going in the wrong direction and 7 percent said they didn't know or weren't sure.

As currently drafted, Proposition 131 would take effect in 2026. It would apply to elections for Congress, governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, state board of education and regents of the University of Colorado, as well as elections to the state legislature. It would not apply to presidential or local elections, such as district attorney or county commissioner.