Twins vs. Red Sox: Predictions, Tips, Odds – 9-20

The Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox battle for AL wild-card spots and begin their three-game series tonight at Fenway Park.

Both clubs are fielding rookie pitchers, and my prediction for the Twins vs. Red Sox game is that Minneapolis right-hander David Festa's recent streak of cameos (and low numbers) continues.

Read on to learn why Festa failing to meet his strikeout goal is one of my top MLB picks for September 20.

Prediction for the game Twins vs. Red Sox

My best bet
David Festa under 5.5 strikeouts (+110 at FanDuel)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

The Boston Red Sox are about to enter their first hot streak, and right-hander David Festa of the Minnesota Twins is just the right pitcher to start their statistical correction.

Boston has the fifth-lowest BABIP (.270) over the past 30 days, although they rank sixth in barrel percentage (9.3%) and 10th in hard hit rate (40.3%). And Festa is showing signs of fatigue: He's already surpassed his previous career high innings, according to FanGraphs, and his velocity has slipped in his past seven starts.

Additionally, he's allowing more batters to walk during that time, with his 9.9 BB% and 3.82 BB/9 during that span well above his respective figures of 5.8% and 2.22 in his first five appearances.

A hard hit rate of 38.3% has also resulted in Festa striking out five or fewer hitters in four of those seven games and failing to go beyond five innings six times. During that span, he's averaged just 77.4 pitches per start and a shaky 4.70 ERA.

The problem is that the Red Sox are prone to strikeouts. Still, Fenway Park has been good for the home team, and the Sox have been solid against right-handed pitchers all season – they have a solid .323 wOBA at home and rank fifth for the year with a .325 mark against righties.

Festa will make misses, but he won't pitch far enough in Friday's game to get over the number tonight.

Twins vs. Red Sox – Same Game Combo (SGP)

Over 8.5 runs

David Festa: Under 5.5 strikeouts

Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

Boston right-hander Richard Fitts has had a smooth ride in his two starts, but Minny will make a splash on Friday. Fitts hasn't allowed a run in 10 2/3 innings, but his .235 BABIP and 83.3% beach rate are unsustainable. He pitched to a 4.17 ERA, with .291 and 74.6%, respectively, in Triple-A, and the Twins enter with a .319 wOBA against right-handers, eighth on the year.

In addition to Festa's difficulty keeping the Sox under control, I also expect Fitts to have trouble with Minnesota's lineup.

As for Rafael Devers, he boasts an excellent .405 wOBA and .312 ISO against right-handers, which rank fifth and third, respectively, among qualified hitters. While he's hitting 4-for-30 at the plate, his .222 BABIP, 11.1 barrel percentage and 44.4% hard hit rate reinforce that it's simply been a losing streak for the proven hitter.

Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.

Odds for Twins vs. Red Sox

Live odds for Twins vs. Red Sox

Opening odds for Twins vs. Red Sox

• Money line: Minnesota -120 | Boston +100
• Execute line: Minnesota -1.5 | Boston +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9

Twins vs. Red Sox Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• There was a small move towards the Minny side of this moneyline at both Pinnacle and bet365.
• I suspect it's because Boston's hitters haven't had as much power due to the low BABIP over the last 30 days, and Fitts' inexperience.
• While this overall score has dropped from 9.0 to 8.5 in both stores, Over still has the higher commission.
• Two inexperienced pitchers against a capable offense screams “Over 8.5,” so I wouldn't be surprised to see the number climb again – even with the high winds predicted.

Trend between Twins and Red Sox

David Festa has failed to record more than five strikeouts in three of his last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Red Sox here.

Game info Twins vs. Red Sox

Twins vs Red Sox – latest injuries

Weather for Twins vs. Red Sox

Pages on this topic