Middle East on brink of regional conflict as focus of Hezbollah attacks shifts to Lebanon – The Irish Times

This week's dramatic events have once again brought the Middle East to the brink of a dangerous regional confrontation and shifted the focus from the Gaza Strip to Lebanon.

The incredible attack, blamed on Israel and targeting Hezbollah's pager network on Tuesday and the group's walkie-talkies the following day, dealt a devastating blow to the Iran-backed militia.

The New York Times reported that years ago, the Mossad set up a front company in Hungary posing as an international pager manufacturer, producing the devices that contained batteries laced with explosives and then shipped them to Lebanon.

Ideally, Israel would have wanted to detonate the wave of blasts at the start of a war with Hezbollah to gain a decisive military advantage. However, according to international media reports, the operation was ordered this week after Hezbollah became suspicious and sent some pagers to Iran for inspection.

Israeli hopes that the blow to Hezbollah would persuade the group to agree to halt its daily rocket attacks on the Galilee, which have forced more than 60,000 Israelis to flee their homes, were dashed on Thursday when Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, vowing revenge for this week's Israeli attacks, said fighting on Israel's northern border would continue until there was a ceasefire in Gaza.

In recent weeks, it has become clear that hopes for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release are fading (both sides have blamed each other for the standoff). A Wall Street Journal report on Thursday confirmed the most pessimistic assessments, citing senior U.S. government officials who said they do not expect an agreement between Israel and Hamas in the remaining four months of the Biden administration.

Nasrallah has called this week's events a declaration of war, but at the same time has not allowed Hezbollah to fire its vast arsenal of medium- and long-range missiles at Israeli cities. Despite his boastful statements saying he would welcome an Israeli ground invasion of southern Lebanon, most analysts believe that is the last thing he wants.

Iran is not currently seeking a full-scale war against its arch-enemy. For Iranian clerics, the country's nuclear project has always been the top priority. They see Hezbollah as their trump card to ward off an Israeli attack on their nuclear facilities.

Does Israel want war? That is still not clear. On Thursday evening, Israeli fighter jets launched heavy attacks on Hezbollah's rocket launching sites, hitting around 100 rocket launching sites in the south. However, it remains to be seen whether this was the start of a full-scale war.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised to change the security situation on the northern border and return evacuees to their homes. As he is scheduled to attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York next week, it is unlikely that he will agree to a ground offensive during the session.

Military reinforcements have been moved north from Gaza and the generals say they are ready. But Israel has no clear strategy to convert this week's spectacular tactical successes into a strategic victory.

Israel's escalation this week could be a dangerous gamble. The country is exhausted after nearly a year of fighting. A new operation in Lebanon could take even longer and result in unprecedented levels of death and destruction. Israel lacks the manpower needed for a prolonged war and has neither international support for a regional war nor the promise of ammunition and weapons from the US and other allies. The last thing the Biden administration wants just weeks before an election is a major war in the Middle East.