Presidential elections in Sri Lanka: Voters face a choice between status quo, slight changes or radical change

Almost every two years, the Sri Lankan voter exercises his or her right to vote to elect either the President of the Legislature, a Member of Parliament, a Member of the Provincial Council or a representative of the local government.

With no elections since the last parliamentary elections in August 2000, voters are eager to cast their ballots tomorrow (September 21) and elect an acting president.

Although the lThe local elections were originally planned for 2022, but were postponed due to the Worsening of the economic crisis and instability in the country and was postponed again due to a lack of funds to hold the elections. The provincial council elections were deadlocked due to an amendment that had to be passed in parliament.

Between the last two elections, the 2022 Aragalaya (protest movement) led to a mid-term presidential transition and Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took over for the remainder of the term, is one of the contenders in tomorrow's election. The other two main candidates are Wickremesinghe's former United National Party (UNP) deputy leader Sajith Premadasa, who has formed a new alliance, Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), and the leader of the radical Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who is running as the candidate of the left-wing National People's Power (NPP) alliance.

The main problem is the economy, the plight of the people

The main election issues are the economy, corruption, poverty and unemployment. Although Wickremesinghe managed to secure economic stability, address the most pressing bottlenecks and implement austerity measures to balance the state coffers with the help of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreement, most of the hardships are likely to continue for several years to come.

Wickremesinghe introduced several economic reforms, and several more are in the works as part of the IMF package, and negotiations with creditors on a necessary debt restructuring are nearing completion. Some relief was introduced before the election, but Sri Lanka's debt levels are at precarious levels and the economy is vulnerable to external shocks even if strict fiscal targets are met.

There have been allegations of electoral fraud in some elections in Sri Lanka in the past, notably the 1982 National Referendum, which sought to extend for a further five years the term of the parliament elected in 1977, which was due to end in 1982. In two of the eight presidential elections, there were allegations that militant groups intimidated voters in an attempt to persuade them to boycott the election.

The electoral commission is independent

However, after the eradication of terrorism in 2009, subsequent elections were free and fair, as local and international observers noted. TThe Election Commission of Sri Lanka is an independent institution and all decisions related to elections are taken by the Commission. The Government has done the budgetary allocation and the rest is the responsibility of the Commission.

The European Union and Commonwealth election observation teams monitor not only voting and vote counting on election day, but also the pre-election period, including candidate registration, campaigning and election preparations, as well as relevant post-election mechanisms such as the settlement of electoral disputes and the reporting of campaign expenditure.

There are several local election monitoring institutions, including the People's Action for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL), Institute for Democratic Reforms and Electoral Studies (IRES), Center for Monitoring Electoral Violence (CMEV), Center for Political Alternatives (CPA) and Campaign for Free and Fair Elections (CaFFE).

Difficult decision for voters

According to post-election polls over the past six months, the three leading candidates who announced their candidacy well in advance have seen changes in position. At one point, Anura Kumara Dissanayake was said to be ahead, then Sajith Premadasa – the son of a former president – was said to have overtaken him, and in the last two weeks, Ranil Wickremesinghe's chances have improved. Although the forecasts of various opinion polls vary considerably, none of the reliable polls has so far given a clear 50% to any of the candidates.

In the first eight presidential elections from 1982 to 2019, there were only two leading candidates in each election, and it was assumed that one of them would receive more than 50% plus one vote needed for a clear victory, so there was no need to count second votes to determine a winner.

This time, however, the scenario is different. Most polls and opinion surveys predict less than 40% of the vote for the frontrunner and 15-30% for the other leading candidates. Most analysts agree that there is no clear winner and that the presidential race will feature many candidates competing against each other.

In a scenario where no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the importance of second preference becomes paramount. The average voter is not used to indicating his or her second or third preference in a presidential poll.

The candidate who receives more than 50% of the votes is declared the winner. Voters' second choices must be counted if no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes. Then the votes of the losing candidates are counted and the second and third choices marked in them are added to the first two candidates to determine the final winner.

While Wickremesinghe wants to continue economic reforms with the IMF package, Premadasa wants to change some IMF conditions while Dissanayake is for a complete change in economic policies and the system of governance. Voters will decide on Saturday whether they want the status quo, slight changes or a radical transformation.

(The author, a former Sri Lankan diplomat, is a commentator on political and strategic affairs. His views are personal. He can be contacted at [email protected].)