Clinical patience meets creative brutality in PNC third place final

Why you should be interested

The bronze medal match can feel like a letdown at any tournament – two teams coming off closely contested semifinals trying to find the motivation to play for a consolation prize. But the USA vs Samoa matchup brings an extra spice that might be missing from another pairing. Having only met twice since 2018, the USA have won the last two meetings by surprise, including a last-minute improvement in 2018 and a dirty, muddy game at the 2019 Pacific Nations Cup. The matchup between the young Eagles, who are just finding their identity, and the always dangerous Samoans with a chip on their shoulder promises to be an unforgettable encounter.

Samoa are fresh off a 49-27 defeat to Japan, where they were outclassed early and couldn't keep up with the well-oiled Japanese machine. Samoa's tries came from explosive one-on-one and one-off moves, living up to their reputation for brutal and creative rugby. However, their disjointed shape also let them down, leading to broken fronts that Japan were determined to exploit. Their size advantage never translated into consistent superiority.

The USA fell to Fiji 22-3 in a game that showed the fighting spirit of the Eagles' defence but also exposed the shaky nature of the USA's finishing ability. That the Fiji offense was limited to 3 tries speaks for itself, especially as they penetrated the USA's 22m 10 times. They strengthened their maul defense on set pieces and also won 3 scrum penalties. But the fact remains that despite 7 trips into the Fiji offense's 22m, including two 5m lineouts, the Eagles were only able to win a single penalty. While the rotation of the team might explain some of the shaky connections, the fundamentals of the lineouts and tight attack should not suffer.

Why Samoa will win

Despite their heavy loss to Fiji, Samoa play a similar style to their island neighbours, particularly in the manner that caused problems for the USA in the PNC. They thrive on broken play, particularly counterattacks after poorly executed shots. The hot, icy conditions in Japan do not seem to have dampened their skills as much as others, and the tries they scored against Japan showed the brilliance they are capable of. Hard-running wingers can create deep bends in defence, allowing their forwards to build up steam and become almost unstoppable in the middle of the field.

Despite the USA's improved maul defence, Samoa are not lacking in size and brutality in their attacking area and any dip in form will see Samoa dominate that part of the game. In the scrum, they have a new substitute on the bench due to injuries in the USA camp in loosehead Payton Telea and recently deployed tighthead Pono Davis. If there are problems in the scrum early on, there will be no experienced substitute available to stabilise things and the Eagles could end up with painful penalty problems.

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Pacific Nations Cup

USA

Samoa

Why the US will win

In their match against Fiji, the USA relied on their strong close-range tackling with improved attacking defense in the full-backs. Fiji's strong attack faltered in the face of the speed of the American line, and their forwards were unable to break the gainline with brute force. Concerns about Fiji's offload play did not materialize, and except for two miscues, the USA held the line. Samoa brings a similar, but less practiced, form to the Fijian attack, so the Eagles should be able to fend off any outside threat with aplomb.

In attack, the USA has brought back Luke Carty as a link-up, meaning his devastating kicking game will once again challenge the opposition backfield. By consistently outplaying Samoa's backline and preventing any promising counterattack, a major source of goals is thwarted. In addition, a dominant kicking game gives a strong defense even more opportunities to win possession, which the USA have shown they can create scoring opportunities from. If they can back up their performance in the lineout from last week, they have shown plenty of creativity in the driving maul to get around Samoa's size advantage.

Why everyone can win

Both teams have a chance to win the game – Samoa through creative attacking and physical brutality, the USA through composed defense and patient attacks. While Samoa can score from anywhere, neither team will pull away early and the game will be decided in the final twenty minutes. Again, don't underestimate the motivation factor – the USA will want to show that they can consistently compete and win against these almost top-tier teams, while Samoa will want to comfortably beat a team five places below them in the rankings.

I'm predicting a narrow win for the Eagles based on Carty's boots and Cory Daniel's shoulders.