Voters are divided on whether Harris or Trump would do a better job on economic issues, new poll shows

The economy has long been a weak issue for Biden: A separate AP-NORC poll conducted in late June, before Biden's disastrous debate with Trump, found that about 6 in 10 Americans disapproved of his handling of the economy. Earlier this year, Americans were much more likely to say Trump's presidency helped the country with the cost of living and job creation than Biden's.

The new poll shows that about 8 in 10 voters consider the economy to be one of the most important issues when choosing their candidate, far overshadowing other important issues such as health care and crime.

The fallout from inflation rising to four-decade highs in 2022 has permeated this year's presidential campaign. Shoppers are upset about their grocery bills. Higher interest rates are putting financial pressure on home and auto buyers. All of this seems to matter more to the public than the low unemployment rate of 4.2% and gains in the stock market.

According to the AP-NORC poll, only about a third of voters say the national economy is doing fairly or very well, although they are more optimistic about their own situation: About 6 in 10 voters say their household finances are doing fairly or very well. Both figures have remained stable over the year despite falling inflation.

The candidates have different ideas about how best to fix the economy, leaving voters with a difficult choice that may indicate that views on the economy and politics are increasingly shaped by partisan beliefs. But neither campaign team has explained in detail how the plans will be implemented. Harris insists her plans would be fully funded and would not increase the budget deficit, while Trump's team – contrary to most economic models – assumes growth will be high enough to offset the costs.

Mark Carlough, 33, who works in the medical records department in Philadelphia, plans to vote for Harris. He is convinced that the import tariffs proposed by Trump would hurt most consumers.

“The tariffs would be devastating for the economy,” he said.

Richard Tunnell, 32, of Huntsville, Texas, plans to vote for Trump, as he did in 2020. He is not sure if the Republican has an advantage over Harris on economic issues, but he noted that Trump was a great businessman who remained one of the “richest men on the planet” even after filing for bankruptcy several times.

“I think this country needs someone to step in and run it like a game of Monopoly, and that person is Donald Trump,” said Tunnell, a disabled war veteran.

Chantelle Breaux, 38, a stay-at-home mom from Lafayette, Louisiana, believes neither candidate has much to offer on the economic front. She has no plans to vote unless a candidate she likes better enters the race.

“Kamala wants to put a Band-Aid on the places where the economy needs major surgery,” Breaux said. “Trump wants to run the country like it's a business, but it's not a business that's going to support all the people.”

Former President Trump says growth will come from tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, which will encourage more investment, while a general tariff of up to 20 percent will channel that investment into building American factories.

Harris has pushed for more middle-class benefits to be funded by higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy. This would help contain costs and create growth, she said. Her team warned that Trump's tariffs would lead to higher prices and exacerbate underlying inflation problems.

The economy is one of many issues shaping public sentiment as campaign teams try to mobilize their voters. More than half of voters said health care was a top concern, while about half said this about crime, immigration, abortion policy and gun policy. Only about a third named climate change as one of the most important issues for their vote, and about a quarter said this about the war between Israel and Hamas.

Trump and Harris are tied in polls on who would do a better job of tackling crime and the Gaza war, but the issues soon diverge in ways that reflect the differing priorities of Republicans and Democrats.

Trump has the advantage over Harris that voters trust him to handle the immigration problem better. This issue has also been a problem for Biden: illegal immigration and border crossings at the US-Mexico border have been a problem for much of his term in office. Republicans are more concerned with immigration, the issue where Trump clearly has the upper hand.

Harris performs better than Trump on issues that are more important to Democrats, including gun policy, health care, abortion policy and climate change.

Rosamaria Nunez, a 68-year-old retiree from San Antonio, Texas, called gun violence the most important issue facing the country. She said it became personal when her grandson called her last year and asked her to pick him up because school was closed.

Nunez said she plans to vote for Harris: “First of all, she's a gun owner, so she knows about the safety issue. She seems more in tune with the real person than Trump.”

Overall, voters are certain that the presidential election will have a major impact on the country's future, the economy, and the future of democracy in the United States. However, they are less likely to believe that the election will affect them personally. About 8 in 10 voters say the election will have a “major” or “quite a bit” impact on the country's future. About three-quarters say the election will have a similar impact on the country's economy and the future of democracy in the United States.

In contrast, half of voters say that the election will have at least “some” impact on them personally.