Game preview and score prediction for Virginia Football vs. Coastal Carolina

2023: 8-5, 5-3 Sun Belt
2024: 3:0

Virginia's defense will be tasked with stopping a run-heavy offense in Conway on Saturday afternoon. Coastal Carolina has the 13th-best running offense in the country, averaging 251.7 yards per game. That running game is powered by a two-headed monster consisting of running back Christian Washington, who has scored four touchdowns and averages 4.7 yards per carry, and dual-threat quarterback Ethan Vasko, a Chesapeake native and former Kansas transfer who is very active in the running game at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds.

Vasko averages 5.6 yards per carry, but Coastal also averages 19.0 yards per completed pass, good for third-best in the country, and shows its ability to make big plays in the passing game as well. Vasko's best pass receivers are Tray Taylor (six catches for 132 yards) and Jameson Tucker (seven catches for 110 yards), both of whom have caught a touchdown this season. Taylor and Tucker aren't the focal point of Coastal's run-oriented offense, but they're dangerous enough to keep the UVA defense on its toes and punish mistakes by the Cavaliers' secondary.

For Coastal Carolina's defense, winning the ball is everything. The Chanticleers have forced six turnovers this season, the most in the Sun Belt Conference and 15th-most in the entire FBS. Those six turnovers – three interceptions and three forced fumbles – have come from six different players. Coastal has already scored three defensive touchdowns this season, making it one of only two teams in the country to do so.

Coastal's best tackler is redshirt senior linebacker Shane Bruce, who has 20 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss. The Chanticleers have nine sacks this season, 2.5 of which come from redshirt sophomore linebacker Tray Brown. Bruce and Brown combine to form a formidable linebacker duo that will provide significant resistance to Anthony Colandrea and the UVA offense.

It's difficult to draw any major conclusions about Coastal Carolina at this point, as the undefeated Chanticleers have yet to face a serious challenge in their 3-0 start that includes a 55-27 win over Jacksonville State, a 40-21 victory over William & Mary and a 28-20 road win at Temple last week. Saturday will tell us a lot about both teams.

Sales battle
We've almost exhausted the topic of Anthony Colandrea and turnovers (at least for this week), but it's the entire Virginia team that will have to be on guard in terms of ball security in this game. Coastal Carolina has been one of the best teams in the country so far at forcing turnovers and immediately scoring points off of those turnovers (three defensive touchdowns). UVA, on the other hand, has a -5 turnover rate this season and has yet to record an interception. Maryland won the turnover battle 4-0 and that was a big reason the Terps walked out of Scott Stadium victorious. Virginia will have to avoid a similar disadvantage in the turnover category to emerge victorious from Coastal.

Sustain and finish drives
Coastal Carolina's ability to run the ball effectively is a great recipe for controlling time of possession. That could be especially dangerous against the Cavaliers, who haven't been on the right side of time of possession often this season. That has a lot to do with Virginia's passing success, but the Hoos didn't do themselves any favors by going 3/15 on third downs and the aforementioned four turnovers in the loss to Maryland. Perhaps more importantly, even when UVA did move the ball down the field, those offenses didn't result in touchdowns often enough, as the Cavaliers scored just five touchdowns on 12 red-zone trips.

Solve the third quarter, win the fourth quarter
Last year, Virginia couldn't close out the fourth quarter, resulting in several one-score losses. The Cavaliers helped correct course on that front with a decisive performance in Week 2, winning the fourth quarter 14-0, coming back from a deficit and beating Wake Forest. Now there's a new troubling trend the Hoos must avoid: They come into the game weak at the start of the second half. Virginia has been outscored 23-7 in third quarters this season and has scored a total of zero points in the last two third quarters. No matter what happens in the first half, the Cavaliers must come out of halftime with a lead that has been lacking so far this season.

It's never good to get into a must-win situation so early in the season, but the difference between Virginia's 3-1 and 2-2 deficits entering the bye week cannot be underestimated. What awaits the Cavaliers after the bye week? Tough challenges against Boston College, Louisville, Clemson and North Carolina. It's time for UVA to prove that the loss to Maryland was just a temporary setback and that the 2024 season can truly be a breakout year.

Result prediction: Virginia 30, Coastal Carolina 24

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