Yankees vs. Mariners: Predictions, Tips, Odds – 9-19

The New York Yankees are on a roll and have built a five-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles in the American League East with another win on Wednesday.

Clarke Schmidt will look to build momentum for the Yankees, and my Yankees vs. Mariners predictions predict that he – and Logan Gilbert – will keep the score low tonight. Read more in my MLB picks for September 19.

Prediction Yankees vs. Mariners

My best bet
Under 7.5 (-124 at FanDuel)

My analysis
It's often hard to understand the struggles of Logan Gilbert, who seems to get stronger with each passing month.

The right-hander was set to enjoy his best month of the season with a .195 xBA against him—his fifth consecutive drop in the new year—but he was once again put on the back foot.

Gilbert allowed 10 earned runs in 20 innings and had an incredible 26 punchouts, but the biggest sticking point seems to be the four home runs he allowed.

The RHP allowed three runs on eight hits in six innings in his only game against the New York Yankees this season, but he'll face a much different version today. Not only has New York slumped to a wRC+ of 80 over the past two weeks, but the team has also posted a strikeout in 23.8% of at-bats, with a mediocre .105 isolated power.

I have faith in Gilbert here, especially since the expected numbers tell a different story than his results. On the other hand, the Seattle Mariners seem ripe for a step back here, as they finally face some capable pitchers in their home stadium.

Seattle has scored just three runs in the two games of this series, while the strikeout rate is starting to climb back to its usual high levels, and with a nearly 30-point gap between the actual and expected batting average, it's no surprise that these red-hot hitters suddenly can't keep up.

Schmidt held his team to just two runs in five innings in May and should be able to handle this lineup well with continued competency. He has a .263 xBA and can get a lot of strikeouts, with nearly 26% of the batters he faced going down with strikeouts. It's a good place to believe in both pitchers.

Aaron Richter chooses: Delayed process

My best bet
Aaron Judge: Under 0.5 runs scored (-120 at DraftKings)

My analysis
Aaron Judge hasn't been particularly successful against Gilbert throughout his career, going 3-for-11 with a .260 xBA and three strikeouts, so we're faced with an interesting decision in the player prop market.

Shorting Judge will cost you a lot of money or involve high risks as some lines are set low, but the market for his runs is quite interesting.

Judge has only scored four times in his last 10 games, in four different games, and should be in a game where scoring is very low as much of the Yankees are struggling to get on base and move runners. He has a tough game ahead of him here, and given the issues against Gilbert, I don't expect him to get on base that often.

Yankees vs. Mariners – Same Game Combo (SGP)

Under 7

Aaron Judge Under 1.5 total bases

Clarke Schmidt 7+ Strikeouts

I couldn't take the odds on Judge's runs scored, so I'm going with the higher price on his total bases here to bet on some trouble. It's worth noting that he got walked three times against Gilbert, and since the right-hander issued a free pass in each of his last three games, there's the added bonus that Judge reached base here without getting a total base.

Judge may have 11 hits in his last 10 games, but only four of them have resulted in extra bases, and he'll be playing in a park where fly balls die. That should be safe enough and lead us to Schmidt's strikeouts.

As mentioned, he looked like a promising strikeout pitcher, with a whiff rate of 29.9%, which puts him in the top 20% of all pitchers, and has posted a strikeout rate of 25.9%. Seattle briefly seemed more comfortable limiting punchouts, but over the last two weeks the strikeout rate is now back to 24%.

Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.

Yankees vs. Mariners odds

Yankees vs Mariners live odds

Yankees vs. Mariners Opening Odds

• Money line: New-York-115 |
• Execute line: New York -1.5 (+150) | Seattle +1.5 (-180)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-125)

Yankees vs. Mariners Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• Seattle started here as a +108 underdog, but that stay was short-lived as the line quickly shot in the other direction and remained at around -120 all day Thursday.
• While here at DraftKings 72% of the bets are on a Yankees win, 48% of the money is on the Mariners.
• The total started at 7.5 runs and stayed at that level for a while before dropping to seven runs on Thursday morning.
• “Over” accounted for 52% of total sales and 78% of tickets.

Yankees vs. Mariners Trend

The Seattle Mariners have under-scored the point total in 44 of their last 76 home games (+13.27 units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mariners here.

Match info Yankees vs. Mariners

Yankees vs. Mariners: Latest injuries

Yankees vs. Mariners Weather

Pages on this topic