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These are the winners of the latest presidential polls between Trump and Harris

These are the winners of the latest presidential polls between Trump and Harris

Top line

With six weeks to go until the election, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is all but dead, according to a series of post-debate polls that found voters think Harris performed better than the president in last week's debate — but not enough to significantly swing the race in her favor.

Key data

Harris and Trump are tied at 47%, according to a New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19. It found that a majority of voters across all demographics gave Harris's performance in the debate a positive rating: 67% overall said she did well, compared with 40% who said the same about Trump (Times/Siena polls from early September to late July had Trump ahead of Harris, 48% to 47%).

Harris has a slight lead in two other polls from September 19: she is ahead by four percentage points in a YouGov/Economist poll of registered voters (49-45%) and by two points in the Fox News poll of likely voters (50-48%). This is a slight shift after Harris was one percentage point behind in a Fox poll in early August and only two percentage points ahead in a YouGov poll in early September.

In a new Forbes/HarrisX poll of 3,018 registered voters from Sept. 11-13 (margin of error 1.8), Harris was three percentage points ahead of Trump, 48% to 45%, while 8% were undecided. In a pre-debate HarrisX poll of 1,003 registered voters from Sept. 9-10 (margin of error 3.1), the two were tied at 45%, while 10% were undecided.

In a Monmouth University poll of 803 registered voters conducted Sept. 11-15 (margin of error 3.9), 49 percent said they would definitely or probably vote for Harris, while 44 percent said the same about Trump – results nearly identical to the group's August poll, in which Harris led 48 percent to 43 percent.

Harris leads Trump 51% to 45% in Morning Consult's Sept. 13-15 poll of likely voters, up three percentage points from before the Sept. 10 debate and her largest lead yet in the group's weekly polls (in a one-day Morning Consult poll conducted Sept. 11, immediately after the debate, Harris led among likely voters 50% to 45%).

In an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted a few days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, Harris led among likely voters 52% to 46% and among registered voters 51% to 47%, essentially unchanged from her six-point lead among likely voters in ABC/Ipsos polls in late and early August—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won last week's debate.

Even after the debate, Harris remained ahead by five percentage points – 47% to 42% – in a two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters that ended September 12 (in late August, a Reuters/Ipsos poll had shown Harris ahead by 45% to 41%).

Polls ahead of the debate showed that Harris's surge in the polls appeared to be stagnating. For example, an NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters from Sept. 3-5 showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, down from her three-point lead in August. But among those who say they definitely plan to vote, she still led him 51% to 48%.

In an Emerson College poll of likely voters on Sept. 3-4, Harris was ahead by two percentage points, 47% to 49%, down slightly from her four-point lead in Emerson's August poll.

In a Wall Street Journal poll released on August 29, Harris led Trump by 48 percent to 47 percent. This was the first time in more than a year that Trump had trailed in a Journal poll – a reversal from Trump's 49 percent to 47 percent lead a month earlier (the poll surveyed registered voters from August 24 to 28, with a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points).

In a Suffolk/USA Today poll conducted Aug. 25-28, the vice president led Trump among likely voters by five percentage points — 48% to 43%. That's a huge shift from Trump's 41% to 38% lead over President Joe Biden, which came shortly after Biden's poor performance at the June debate (the latest poll's margin of error is 3.1 points).

Large number

2.1. That's how many points Harris is ahead of Trump, according to the latest RealClearPolitics poll average. The weighted average from FiveThirtyEight shows Harris ahead by 3.2 points.

Surprising fact

According to a Monmouth University poll released on August 14, enthusiasm among Democrats has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46 percent in June to 85 percent today. Among Republicans, however, enthusiasm has stagnated at 71 percent.

How does Harris fare against Trump in the swing states?

Harris leads Trump by two percentage points overall in the seven swing states likely to decide the election, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted Aug. 23-27: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Harris leads Trump in six of the seven states and is tied in Arizona.

tangent

Harris has narrowed Trump's lead over Biden in Iowa to four points from 18 points in June, according to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted Sept. 8-11 by longtime pollster Ann Selzer, who is known for her accuracy.

Important background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after weeks of resisting calls from within his own party to abandon his re-election campaign following his disastrous performance at the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris, and she announced she would seek the nomination. The party quickly joined her, and 99% of Democratic delegates voted for her official nomination in a virtual vote ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris nominated Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Senator JD Vance as his vice presidential nominee. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump from Philadelphia on September 10. Pundits, including former Fox News host Chris Wallace and NBC News presidential historian Michael Beschloss, widely viewed Harris as the winner of the debate because she repeatedly taunted Trump, causing him to stray from the topic. The majority of voters (53%) who said they had heard at least something about the debate said Harris won, while 24% said Trump won and the rest did not answer, Reuters/Ipsos found. Far more Democrats (91%) also said Harris won than Republicans (53%) who thought Trump won, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll.

More information

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Harris won the debate – but voters’ opinions have not changed significantly (Forbes)

Trump's lead over Biden and Harris has jumped after the RNC, according to a HarrisX/Forbes poll (Forbes)

This is how Kamala Harris fares in polls against Trump – while Biden drops out and supports Harris (Forbes)

Harris' lead over Trump remains unchanged after DNC, first poll shows (Forbes)

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