Donald Trump: Will Kamala Harris win a landslide in November? This data scientist who predicted the last US election says yes

A reporter wrote several articles in late 2020 and early 2021 focusing on the election forecasts of Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller. Miller used an incredibly novel approach to predict the trends and outcomes of the presidential election and both Senate races in Georgia – in which Democrats unexpectedly won both seats and took control of the upper chamber. Miller is back in the ring for the first time since his totally improbable predictions. He is using a similar method to assess the supposedly extremely close presidential election, which will be decided in just 48 days. His totally unconventional prediction is likely to surprise pundits, pollsters and Fortune readers.

But Miller's view is important for two main reasons: first, the data on which it is based are probably much more scientific than the exit polls that are almost always used to determine the outcome of the election. And second, he achieved absolute precision four years ago.

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Miller outperformed nearly all pollsters and modelers analyzing multiple voter surveys in all three 2020 elections. He correctly identified all of the states in the Electoral College except Georgia, missing Biden's lead by just 12 votes. Miller improved his methodology for classifying the Peach States data for the two Senate runoffs and won another victory.

A week before Election Day on December 6, 2020, polls showed Republican David Perdue with a large lead over Democrat Jon Ossoff and showed a neck-and-neck race between the Republican Party's Kelly Loeffler and her opponent Raphael Warnock. In contrast, Miller's numbers predicted Loeffler heading for a major defeat and Ossoff on track for a modest victory. Once again, the recalcitrant academic hit the nail on the head: Miller was just 0.2% short of Warnock's 2.0% lead and was spot on with his prediction of Ossoff's final 1.0% lead at the ballot box.

Miller's approach to political forecasting differs from most others by relying on prices set by Americans who put their money on the candidates they believe are most likely to win. He believes that polls are a snapshot of the recent past and that odds on betting sites depict the future. Miller uses Predictit, the largest political betting site in the U.S., to estimate the Biden-Trump rematch using a generalized, linear model based on the results of the last sixteen presidential elections since 1960. The model shows that daily prices on Predictit translate closely to the share of the popular vote going to each candidate. Miller's model shows that if the situation holds, Trump will face an outright defeat while Harris will receive over 400 electoral votes and win Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and all the other swing states. Miller predicts that if the situation continues, Trump will face an absolute defeat and that Harris looks set to win a clear victory on November 5.Also read: Here are the last messages sent by the submersible Titan just before it imploded on its way to the wreck of the Titanic

FAQ

How does Thomas Miller's prediction differ from polls?
Miller uses data from betting markets instead of traditional surveys because he believes that people who bet with real money can predict future outcomes better than small, time-lagged survey samples.

Why does Miller think Kamala Harris will win a landslide?
Miller's model, based on forecast trends, shows that Harris gains strong support after key campaign events, meaning she has a clear electoral advantage over Trump.