Aim for this game combination for “TNF”

A dropped pass by Eagles running back Saquon Barkley in the final minutes of the fourth quarter ruined our chances of making money on a same-game parlay bet on Monday.

However, everything has to start all over again on Thursday evening, as the New York Jets play their first home game against the New England Patriots in Week 3.

Being one of the most popular teams to compete for the NFL title comes at a price, so the Jets will be playing their third game in 10 days and their second in prime time.

With New York at 6.5 points at home, we can shift the odds in our favor by taking advantage of some alternate lines in a parlay bet on the same game, with the visitors at +7.5 and the under at 46 points.

Odds for Patriots vs. Jets

Patriots vs. Jets – Same Game Combo

• Stage 1: Patriots ALT spread +7.5
• Stage 2: ALT total under 46 points

Patriots ALT Spread +7.5

The Patriots enter this game having allowed the fifth fewest points (16.5) through the first two weeks.

Their new head coach, Jerod Mayo, took over a team with the ninth-best defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) in 2023.

Pro Football Focus gave the Patriots a B- grade this offseason because they didn't have any significant free agent additions, but they also didn't have any major departures.

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett returns to the team that originally selected him 91st in the third round of the 2016 NFL Draft.

Although Brissett has often been one of those tweeners throughout his career – not quite good enough to be a regular starter, but probably more deserving than sitting on the bench – a return to his old stomping ground may benefit him.

New England is clearly in the rebuilding phase and needs stability at the quarterback position, coupled with a defense that is quite capable of making stops when needed.

In Week 1, the Patriots held the same Bengals team that scored 25 points against the Chiefs to 10 points before losing in overtime the following week to a Seahawks team that ranks sixth in offensive DVOA.

Now they will face a Jets offense that hasn't looked nearly as convincing at making up a point difference within a touchdown.

ALT total under 46 points

Despite the low opening score of 40 points, this number has now dropped even further to 38.5.

Both quarterbacks are much more methodical at this early stage of the season, as they are not yet as willing to drive the ball down the field.

According to Pro Football Reference, Brissett (5.9) and Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (6.3) are in the bottom quarter of intended air yards per pass attempt.

Among other things, we can assume that New England is more committed to running the ball.

The Patriots average 37.5 rushing attempts per game, the third-highest in the league.

Therefore, it is no surprise that New England's running game dominates time of possession, ranking fifth with an average of around 34 minutes per game.

The Jets' run defense wasn't great to start the year, ranking 26th in DVOA and allowing 155 yards per game on the ground.

Betting on the NFL?

The opposing team already has a run play rate of 50.8% against the Jets, meaning they are more than willing to accept a lower Expected Points Added (EPA) in return for being able to control the pace of the game.

Since this is a division game, an adjusted total under 46 points should fit well with the Patriots at +7.5.

Best bet: Combination bet in the same game (+115)

• Patriots ALT spread +7.5
• ALT total under 46 points

Why you can bet on the New York Post

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. In his betting career, he has won two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay that covered eight games of the Little League World Series. More recently, he has accurately picked the finalists for the 2024 Euros and the Copa America.