Pager explosions in Lebanon: Israel's patience is running out; is war with Hezbollah now imminent? Explained

Just a day after Hezbollah militants' pagers exploded, more electronic devices detonated in Lebanon on Wednesday, triggering a second wave of deadly attacks.

Both attacks are suspected to have been carried out by Israel, raising fears that the ongoing conflict between the two sides could escalate into a full-scale war.

Two waves of attack

Earlier on Tuesday, pagers used by hundreds of Hezbollah members exploded in various locations in Lebanon and Syria, killing at least 12 people, including two young children, and injuring thousands.

The Lebanese government and Iran-backed Hezbollah have also blamed the deadly explosions on Israel.

Read also: How Israel's Mossad orchestrated coordinated deadly explosions

Just a day after these incidents, more explosions occurred in Beirut and other areas of Lebanon on Wednesday, including several blasts during a funeral in Beirut for three Hezbollah members and a child who lost their lives in Tuesday's explosions, according to Related Press.

At least 20 people were killed and another 450 injured in what appears to be the second attack, the Health Ministry said.

Pagers were “discontinued” in 2014

Mobile phones have become the world's primary means of communication, while pagers – often called beepers because of the sound they emit to signal incoming messages – have largely fallen out of favor, with demand declining dramatically since their peak in the 1990s.

Hezbollah has relied on pagers for communications for many years.

Recently, the group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, warned members against using cell phones because Israel could potentially use them to track their movements. Pagers operate on a different wireless network than cell phones, which generally makes them more resilient in emergencies.

For Hezbollah, pagers are a way to circumvent what it believes is extensive electronic surveillance of Lebanon's cellphone networks by Israel. The simpler pager technology carries a lower risk of communications being intercepted and represents a more secure option for the group.

Japanese company Icom announced on Thursday that it had stopped production of the radio that was reportedly used in the recent explosions in Lebanon about a decade ago. AFP reported.

“The IC-V82 is a handheld radio that was produced and exported from 2004 to October 2014, including to the Middle East. Its production was discontinued about 10 years ago and has not been delivered by our company since then,” Icom said in a statement.

What do analysts say?

Elijah J. Magnier, a Brussels-based veteran and senior political risk analyst, told the AP that the newer model of pagers used in Tuesday's explosions were acquired more than six months ago, but how they got to Lebanon remains unclear.

Taiwanese company Gold Apollo confirmed on Wednesday that it had authorized the use of its trademark for the AR-924 pager model, but noted that the devices were manufactured and sold by a Budapest-based company called BAC Consulting KFT.

Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs said there were no records of direct exports of gold Apollo pagers to Lebanon.

Mechanics of sabotage

Experts for the Related Press suggested that Tuesday's explosions were likely the result of a supply chain disruption, meaning small explosive devices may have been integrated into the sides before being delivered to Hezbollah and may have been detonated simultaneously via a radio signal.

As reported by APA former British Army bomb disposal officer explained in detail that an explosive device typically consists of five main components: a container, a battery, an initiator, a detonator and an explosive charge.

“A pager already has three of them,” said the former police officer, who asked to remain anonymous because he now works as a consultant for clients in the Middle East. “You just need to add the detonator and the charge.”

Sean Moorhouse, a former British officer and explosives expert, pointed out that Israel's foreign intelligence service Mossad was most likely to have the means to carry out such an operation because of its previous experience in carrying out similar attacks.

While the details of Wednesday's explosions remain unclear, reports of additional electronic devices being detonated suggest a deeper level of infiltration and booby-trap-like interference in the Lebanese supply chain. This situation heightens concerns over the uncertainty of who might possess these compromised devices.

Did the Mossad track the movements of Hezbollah members?

Experts said AP that the time frame for such preparations could be several months to two years.

Nicholas Reese, an adjunct professor at New York University's School of Professional Studies, said conducting an operation of this magnitude required building relationships to gain physical access to the pagers before selling them, developing the embedded technology and securing sources to verify that the intended targets were using the devices.

According to conversations with Hezbollah contacts, Elijah J. Magnier reported that the group is investigating the type of explosive used in the devices. They suspect either RDX or PETN – highly explosive materials that can cause significant damage with just 3 to 5 grams. They are also looking into the possibility that the devices contained GPS systems that Israel could use to track the movements of the group's members.

NR Jenzen-Jones, a military weapons expert and director of Australia's Armament Research Services, added that “such a large-scale operation also raises questions of targeting” – highlighting the number of casualties and the enormous impact reported so far. Related Press.

“How can the person who detonates the explosive device be sure that, for example, the target person's child will not play with the pager if it works?” he asked.

Is war with Hezbollah imminent as Israel's patience runs out?

Hezbollah vowed retaliatory strikes against Israel, saying on Wednesday it had attacked Israeli artillery positions with rockets. This was its first offensive against Israel since the recent explosions. The Israeli military reported no damage or casualties from the attack.

“Hezbollah wants to avoid a full-scale war,” noted Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy research director at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “But given the magnitude of the situation, there will be pressure for a stronger response.”

The military movements were accompanied by tougher rhetoric from the Israeli leadership, which said its patience was running out.

(With contributions from agencies)