In November, ten states will vote on abortion rights – the Democrats cannot count on this to win them elections

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Benjamin Case, Arizona State University

(THE CONVERSATION) Ten states will vote on abortion ballot initiatives this November: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Nevada and South Dakota.

Many political analysts and experts view abortion as a partisan issue, fueling speculation that direct votes on abortion rights will boost Democrats' chances in the November election. Some Democratic strategists hope that voter turnout on the ballot initiatives will sway Republican candidates in key states such as Arizona, Nevada and Florida.

But the impact of electoral proposals on a candidate’s victory or defeat is rarely so clear.

For the past three years, I have been cataloging and studying ballot initiatives as a political sociologist. Based on state-level data and current trends, I think it is very likely that many of the ballot initiatives proposed in November to combat abortion will pass. But this will not necessarily translate into broader victories for Democratic candidates.

The wave of votes for abortion rights

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down 50-year-old federal abortion protections in June 2022, returning the question of whether and when people can have an abortion to the individual states. Republican lawmakers in Kansas seized the opportunity and expedited a referendum that would allow them to ban abortion on the August 2022 primary ballot.

The plan backfired. Although the majority of voters in Kansas were Republican, almost 60 percent rejected the abortion ban.

In 2022 and 2023, voters in six more states defended abortion rights through referendums. In Kentucky and Montana, voters rejected abortion bans, while California, Michigan, Ohio and Vermont voted to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitutions—all through referendums.

Election initiatives are non-partisan

Ballot initiatives – also called propositions, measures, referendums, etc. – refer to votes on a policy rather than a politician. In some states, voters can put initiatives on the ballot by collecting signatures. In all states except Delaware, state legislators can put issues directly to voters in the form of a referendum. In other cases, such as amending most state constitutions, decisions must be put to a popular vote.

The media often portrays U.S. politics through a polarized two-party perspective. Referendums don't necessarily fit that mold. Referendums on issues like the minimum wage and Medicaid expansion show that some policies are popular with both Democrats and Republicans. For example, raising the minimum wage has gone undefeated in 24 state-level referendums since 1996, including traditionally conservative, liberal, and swing states.

State-level elections that have resulted in abortion rights victories since 2022 reflect a similar dynamic. The issue is polarizing, but not down the middle and not strictly along party lines. National polls show that abortion rights have long enjoyed majority support, including among many Republicans.

Inconclusive at best

There is some research suggesting that popular initiatives can increase voter turnout. However, most studies show mixed results and limited impact.

When we look at the turnout numbers for the 2022 and 2023 state elections that included a vote on abortion rights and compare them to the numbers for previous elections in the same states, we see no compelling evidence that the ballot measures attracted more voters.

Voter turnout increased in Michigan and Vermont in 2022, while voter turnout declined in California, Kentucky and Montana.

Both Kansas in 2022 and Ohio in 2023 saw voter gains. However, these votes are difficult to compare because they occurred in a primary and an election in an odd-numbered year, when voter turnout is typically low.

Even popular initiatives on abortion law, whether to codify or ban it, seem to have little impact on partisan elections. After the abortion ban was rejected in August 2022, Kansas voters re-elected both the incumbent Democratic governor and an incumbent Republican senator in November of that year. Seats in the Kansas House of Representatives remained unchanged, with Republicans holding a two-thirds majority.

In Kentucky and Montana, a majority of voters rejected abortion bans in 2022 and continued to elect Republicans to state offices. In Michigan, Democrats took control of the state legislature in 2022 while the state voted for abortion rights.

It's possible that Michigan's “blue wave” in 2022 got a boost from the state's ballot initiative protecting abortion rights this year. But more likely, it had more to do with direct legislation from the previous election. In 2018, Michigan voters passed a ballot initiative to create an independent redistricting commission, reversing years of gerrymandering that had benefited Republicans. These redrawn maps were first used in 2022.

And most importantly, just because a voter cares deeply about abortion rights doesn't necessarily mean they'll vote Democrat. Republican voters overwhelmingly support abortion rights in every state.

Meanwhile, in Nevada's 2024 Democratic primary, about 6% of voters have chosen “undecided,” which corresponds to the national Undecided in Solidarity with Palestinians movement. This political movement advocates withholding support from Democrats because of the Biden administration's support for Israel's war in Gaza. These voters will most likely support the state's abortion initiative in November, but may not be persuaded to vote for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris or other Democrats.

Democrats cannot rely on abortion initiatives

Referendums are about specific issues, not political candidates. In this case, abortion rights enjoy more support nationwide than the Democratic Party.

If Democratic politicians – from Harris and Tim Walz to state and local candidates – want to win in November, they will have to convince voters on their merits relative to their Republican opponents. They cannot count on abortion initiatives to help them win the 2024 election.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here: https://theconversation.com/abortion-rights-are-on-10-state-ballots-in-november-democrats-cant-count-on-this-to-win-elections-for-them-238373.

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