Frontrunners, what is at stake, consequences for India

Sri Lanka's political landscape will change when citizens elect a new president on Saturday. Sri Lanka's 17 million voters will be able to choose from 39 candidates in the country's first election since the 2022 popular uprising that led to the ouster of then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

This year's election is dominated by two major alliances: the SJB (Samagi Jana Balawegaya) and the NPP (National People's Power), alongside various smaller parties and independent candidates.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe of the UNP (United National Party) is contesting as an independent. Wickremesinghe, popularly known as RW, is supported by many rebel MPs from the SLPP (Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna) led by former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. Also in the race are opposition leader Sajith Premadasa of the SJB alliance, leftist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna) – the NPP's presidential candidate – and Mahinda's son Namal Rajapaksa as the SLPP candidate.

Opinion polls and experts suggest that Sri Lankan voters prioritize issues such as economy, education, health, law and security. Corruption and misconduct of politicians, which dominated the election issue, have taken a back seat after the 2022 unrest. Since most governments in the past have failed to solve the corruption problem, people think it is better to talk about development. They hope to elect a leader who can lift them out of abject poverty.

Dark past

In the last election, held after the Easter bombings on April 21, 2019, Gotabaya Rajapaksa of the SLPP (Namal's uncle) won a clear victory and Sajith Premadasa came second. Three years later, however, the world witnessed Sri Lankans depose President Gotabaya Rajapaksa after suffering a steady economic decline. Gotabaya's flawed economic and monetary policies, along with the COVID-19 pandemic that hurt tourism – a major part of the economy – led to unsustainable debt levels. In April 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on its debts and asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for help. The war between Russia and Ukraine further exacerbated the crisis, as prices of food, medicine and fuel rose and sparked mass protests unprecedented in the country's history.

Sri Lanka's Samagi Jana Balawegaya party leader Sajith Premadasa waves to supporters.

The uprising was named “Janatha Aragalaya' (a Sinhala term). Then Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned and subsequently his brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa also resigned as president and fled. Ranil Wickremesinghe, a former minister, became prime minister. In July 2022, Ranil assumed the presidency through a parliamentary vote with the support of the Rajapaksas' party, SLPP, which still has the majority in parliament. Ranil Wickremesinghe adopted severe austerity measures with the support of the IMF.

New leaders

Gotabaya Rajapaksa's inept governance and his decision to leave the country have done the most damage to the image of the Rajapaksa clan and the SLPP. Most SLPP MPs are supporting either Ranil or Sajith in this election. Namal Rajapaksa, they say, is just a token candidate to keep the SLPP alive.

Sajith's SJB is supported by the Tamil and Muslim minorities, who make up 11 and 9 percent of the population respectively.

Although the Tamil parties have fielded a joint candidate, the largest party, ITAK (Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi), has declared its support for Sajith Premadasa. In 2019, Tamils ​​had also voted for Sajith, but after the Easter bombings, there was an unprecedented consolidation of the Sinhala vote behind Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, which helped him win the election.

National People's Power (NPP) presidential candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayaka gestures during an election rally.

The political space created by Rajapaksa's dismissal was filled by Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the JVP, who called on the Sri Lankan people to embrace broader change. The party, once a marginal figure, has now emerged as a credible, significant political force.

As for Ranil Wickremesinghe, most members of his party UNP are now behind Sajith, although he is supported by some SLPP MPs such as National Defence Minister Premitha Bandara Tennakoon. Ranil is banking on his handling of the economic crisis to win him votes.

“People want a change this time. They don't want to vote for the same party and the same old candidates. The new voters, especially on social media, are supporting Anura Dissanayake. But on the ground, Sajith has a large support base, especially in the rural areas,” says Thushara Gooneratne, editor-in-chief of Mawrata News.

“Most people think that Sajith is a champion of the poor, just like his father, former President R. Premadasa.”

India’s share

Recently, anti-Indian sentiment in the neighbourhood has increased for various reasons. Whether in Nepal, the Maldives, Sri Lanka or Bangladesh, politicians have succeeded in directing the anger of the population towards India.

For India, the sorry plight of the Tamil population in the north and east of Sri Lanka has long been a cause of concern. Successive Sri Lankan governments have failed to implement the 13th Constitutional Amendment, signed in 1987 as part of the India-Sri Lanka Accord, which provided for the devolution of powers to local governments in the north and east. In fact, India has raised the Sri Lankan Tamil issue at the 51st session of the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva in 2022. With the new government, India wants to push for the restoration of provincial councils, which would grant a degree of autonomy to the Sri Lankan Tamils.

India has its sights set on a stable and peaceful Sri Lanka. Given the country's geostrategic location in the Indo-Pacific, the country wants to limit China's growing interference in the country. The 99-year lease of the Hambantota port to China in 2017, which fuels the debt trap narrative, has further heightened India's concerns.

Anura Dissanayake's party has often been seen as being close to China, India's biggest geopolitical rival. But Dissanayake has recently enjoyed a different kind of authority within Sri Lankan politics, which has earned him recognition as an emerging political force from India's perspective. Reflecting this, New Delhi invited Dissanayake for talks in February.

“Whoever wins this time will work with India. Sajith is pro-India. But even Dissanayake, who was previously considered anti-India, is not in India. India is important for Sri Lanka's growth and stability,” says Thushara.

India needs all possible goodwill to deal with the increasing complexity in the neighbourhood, the escalating regional conflicts and the ongoing change in the global economic order. A friendly, stable neighbourhood is a good start.