USA Elections 2024: The US Post-Election Horror Show

The US post-election horror show

It could take weeks to decide who will be America's new president after election day on November 5. Ultimately, a constitutional crisis threatens.

Published today at 10:47

Subscribe now and benefit from the reading function.

BotTalk

Another assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump has been foiled. Unlike the first attempt in mid-June, when Trump was grazed in the ear by a bullet, the would-be assassin was identified in time by security forces in the bushes of Trump's golf course in Florida on Sunday and taken into custody. And unlike last time, the markets are not pricing Trump's increased chances of winning for the presidential election on November 5.

The first assassination attempt in June was also predicted a disastrous TV debate by US President Joe Biden, which led to such pressure on him from his Democratic Party, that he finally withdrew from the candidacy. His place was taken by Vice President Kamala Harris, who made a more convincing appearance last week in the TV debate against Trump. Polls and betting markets now show a slight advantage for Harris.

The big FuW series on the US election: You can find all articles here.

Illustration: Marco Tancredi

In the beginning are the faithless

However, as already described here, a majority of the votes for a presidential candidate is not decisive. What matters is the votes of the electors – also known as the electors – the majority of voters in each individual state will vote on November 5th to later vote for one of the candidates. The number of these electors is different for each state and is measured primarily by its population size.

In the end, the candidate who wins the majority of the 538 electoral votes will move into the White House. And as in 2016, Trump could also pull off the feat of Although we miss out on the people, we win the electoral majority. But there is another scenario currently doing the rounds in Washington – one that has only happened once in the country's history and that could even trigger a constitutional crisis this time. In this scenario, Donald Trump could win a second term in office even without a majority of electors.

This would require so-called faithless electors at the beginning. In 2016, seven electors did not vote for the candidate for whom the majority of voters in their state had voted. Instead, they voted for people who were not even on the ballot. Some states have passed laws that explicitly require electors to follow the will of the voters and provide for their replacement if they violate this rule. But not all states have such regulations.

In 2016, the faithless electors did not change the outcome, as Trump had secured a comfortable majority of 304 electoral votes. This time, however, it could be so close that one scenario sees Harris crossing the finish line with exactly the minimum required 270 electoral votes. When the Electoral College then meets on December 16 and actually elects the president, a single faithless elector from a state that does not sanction this behavior could be enough to shift the outcome in Trump's favor.

A scenario in which Kamala Harris gets exactly the minimum number of 270 electoral votes.

Graphic: 270towin.com

In this case, however, Trump would not automatically become president. The penultimate stage in the process for a new president, before the swearing-in on January 20, is the recognition of the electors' election results by a session of the US Congress on January 6. In 2021, this day went down in US history when an armed mob incited by former President Donald Trump stormed the Congress building to prevent the recognition of Joe Biden's election.

Congress generally has the power to accept or reject electoral votes. In the latter case, individual members of Congress must contest the vote. In this case, both chambers of Congress – the House of Representatives and the Senate – vote in separate sessions on whether the electoral vote in question should be counted. Polls currently suggest that the Democrats will gain the majority in the House of Representatives and the Republicans in the Senate.

“In 1825, the candidate who ultimately became president was the one who had neither received a popular majority nor a relative majority of the electoral votes.”

If the Republican senators had voted to recognize the faithless elector for Trump's votes, his vote would still count and Trump would have the 270 electoral votes needed for a second term. But even if majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives were to reject the faithless elector's vote, Trump could still end up being the winner. In this scenario, neither of the two candidates would have achieved an electoral majority of more than 270, and the faithless elector's vote would not be counted.

The Constitution stipulates that the House of Representatives decides who should become president. This has only happened once in the history of the USA, when none of the four candidates at the time was able to achieve a majority of the electoral votes in the 1824 presidential election. In this procedure, however, the representatives do not vote as individual representatives, as they do in every other decision in Congress. If there is a likely Democratic majority in the next House of Representatives, Harris would probably be the winner.

No, this is a so-called quota election. The representatives are not selected by party affiliation, but by state affiliation. Each state contingent receives one vote, and the majority within each contingent decides which candidate the vote goes to. There are currently more Republican-dominated state contingents, and this will probably be the case in the next Congress as well.

In the current scenario, this would also suggest that the House of Representatives would vote in Trump's favor. In 1825, the House voted for the candidate who had neither received the popular vote nor the relative majority of the electoral college votes, and preferred the runner-up, John Quincy Adams, over Andrew Jackson. The result did not exactly help to strengthen the population's trust in the then still relatively young political system.

Appearance before the Supreme Court?

Even today, the consequences would be difficult to predict. It is conceivable that the Democratic representatives would refuse to recognize the election altogether or simply declare Harris president unilaterally via a vote by the individual representatives, which could lead to a corresponding Senate vote in favor of Trump.

The result would be a constitutional crisis for which the founding fathers had not provided a solution. As in 2000, the Supreme Court could be called upon this time and effectively decide the election with a ruling. The vRepublican judges appointed to Trumpmore Could be to his advantage here too.

It is quite possible that the former president will once again legally challenge the election results in some highly contested states if they do not turn out to his liking. In 2020, Trump and his allies even ensured that fake electors in seven states sent fake results to Washington. Among other things, Trump is likely to have to answer to the courts next year.

To this day, Trump has not recognized the results from that time and has called the election stolen without ever providing any evidence. This year, he has again suggested that there will be widespread electoral fraud. This does not help public support for an already complicated electoral process.

Newsletter

FuW – The Weekend

Receive hand-picked reading recommendations from the editors for the weekend.

More newsletters

Valentin Goodbye is the US correspondent for “Finance and Economy”. From New York, he reports on companies, markets and politics in the world's largest economy.More info@valle85

Found an error? Report it now.

Start of the 21st season: “Deutschland sucht den Superstar”: Ten exciting facts about the show

Pager and walkie-talkie attack – How Hezbollah could react – Podcast

Idaho College murder suspect Bryan Kohberger appears in court in Boise for the first time

USA Elections 2024: The US Post-Election Horror Show

Related posts:

By Hudson Brooklyn

You Missed

Sex offender from Newton Abbot jailed

Woman arrested after hit-and-run accident in Paris

23-year-old biker killed in head-on collision with wrong-way car in Gurugram

Debut of Raab's new TV show: How a candidate got his dream performance

USA Elections 2024: The US Post-Election Horror Show

Related posts:

By Hudson Brooklyn

Related Post

Sex offender from Newton Abbot jailed

Woman arrested after hit-and-run accident in Paris

23-year-old biker killed in head-on collision with wrong-way car in Gurugram

You Missed

Sex offender from Newton Abbot jailed

Woman arrested after hit-and-run accident in Paris

23-year-old biker killed in head-on collision with wrong-way car in Gurugram

Debut of Raab's new TV show: How a candidate got his dream performance