Montpellier vs Auxerre – Prediction, Betting Tips and Odds

Both teams, Montpellier and Auxerre, will face each other in Ligue 1 on September 22, 2024. Montpellier is in poor shape, sitting 18th in the table without a win so far this season. Auxerre is a little higher in 15th place with a win but is also struggling with irregularities. Both teams are desperate for a positive result, knowing full well that this is an opportunity to reverse their current fortunes and gain important points at the start of the season to avoid falling into a relegation battle.

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Montpellier

Montpellier's poor start to the season without a win (W0, D1, L3) sets up a trend of consecutive defeats that has now increased to three games. In fact, it has turned into a run of 11 games without a win in all competitions. This loss to Rennes (0-3) highlighted several problems: a lack of creativity in attack – 0 big chances – and a really leaky defense that saw them concede 15 goals in 4 games. Montpellier's weak 4-2-3-1 system did not provide enough momentum going forward; there were only four shots on goal and long balls and crosses were also poorly executed at 64% and 13% respectively. They have also fallen behind in every single game this season.

Montpellier use a balanced 4-2-3-1 formation whenever possible, but recent performances have highlighted some serious structural weaknesses both in and out of possession. Their defense was fragile and despite having possession, they struggled to convert it into concrete opportunities – at least not against Rennes, where they had 49% possession. They also showed some resilience, winning 57% of defensive duels, but struggle to win tackles (52%) and deal with set pieces. Long balls and crosses indicate a direct style of play offensively; however, the success rate was only 64% and 13% respectively. Inefficient due to a lack of support from the lone striker.

This could tactically mean a change of formation for Montpellier, focusing more on tightening up the defence and, if necessary, a more cautious approach, looking to counterattack to expose Auxerre's weaknesses on the wings. This could work to their advantage, with two defensive midfielders shielding their fragile backline while also using pace on the wings to stretch Auxerre's defence apart.

Auxerre

Auxerre have also endured a tough season, with W1 D0 L3, and recently suffered a humiliating 3-0 home defeat to Monaco. Tactically, things were disastrous against Monaco, with the 3-4-2-1 formation not working at all, with the visitors only having 41% of possession and only having one corner in that game. In fact, Auxerre's defence has been full of holes, conceding five goals in their last three games, while their midfield has controlled games poorly, winning just 39% of tackles. After three defeats in a row, Auxerre will be looking to strengthen their defence – but against a Montpellier team who have also conceded goals with quite alarming regularity.

Auxerre's 3-4-2-1 formation allows them to defend with a back three, while advancing full-backs provide width, but this has not been particularly successful of late. Their reliance on long balls 49% of the time suggests they are also direct, although again they do not use width as often as they should, converting just 6% of crosses in their last game. In addition, their midfield is not very physical or in control, as evidenced by 39% of tackles won in this area, and as a result they may struggle to maintain possession and control the game.

Auxerre could look to switch to a more conservative 3-5-2 or even 5-4-1 and focus on flooding the midfield and disrupting Montpellier's passing lanes. Considering how often Montpellier concedes first, Auxerre could look to attack early and then block deep to frustrate their opponents. It's worth targeting Montpellier's flanks as their full-backs like to go forward, leaving space at the back.

Direct comparison

Montpellier has 7 wins, the same as Auxerre, while 6 games ended in draws. This suggests a competitive playing history, although Montpellier have been in better form recently. The last time these two teams met in January 2023, Montpellier won 2-0 away.

In the last 8 meetings between these two teams, both teams scored a goal in 6 of those games. This shows that the games involving these teams are usually open and there are goals on both sides.

The games between Montpellier and Auxerre have often been quite clean, with fewer than 4.5 cards being shown in nine of the last ten games.

Auxerre has conceded goals in each of its last four games against Montpellier, exposing the weakness of its defense in duels with its opponents.

Expert betting tips

With both teams in poor form and unable to create clear-cut chances – Montpellier didn't create a single big chance against Rennes, while Auxerre have one of the worst chance conversion rates – it's unlikely this will be a high-scoring game. Recent games involving Montpellier have been low on goals, as they have failed to score in their last two matches; Auxerre also struggled to score goals in their 3-0 loss to Monaco.

Montpellier failed to score in their last game and were largely uninspired, while Auxerre's attack has been more inconsistent this season. It looks set to be a low-scoring game, with one of the two teams possibly failing to score.

Montpellier have conceded the first goal in every game 8/ this season and it looks very likely that this will continue against Auxerre, who will take the opportunity to capitalise on weaknesses in Montpellier's defence.

• Total under 3 goals @ 1.6
• GG (No) @ 2.27 odds
• A total of less than 2.5 goals at odds of 2.10