Astros vs. Padres: Predictions, Tips, Odds – 9-16

The San Diego Padres are 3.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers as one of the final weeks of the season begins, but the Houston Astros are not giving up easily.

Both lineups have plenty of power, and my Astros vs. Padres predictions explain why you should bet the over. Read all about it in my MLB picks for September 16.

Astros vs Padres Prediction

My best bet
Over 8 (-102 at DraftKings)

My analysis
Spencer Arrighetti is a huge mystery at 24. Despite mediocre results, he was named the Houston Astros' best minor league pitcher last season.

Well, he's scored 11 runs — five earned — in just 7 1/3 innings across two starts this month. Although he settled in and got off to a good start against the A's last time out, he allowed seven hits in 6 2/3 innings and has now allowed a home run in two consecutive games.

The right-hander has developed into an impressive strikeout pitcher and his .227 xBA is pretty good, but walks have been the biggest criticism – along with home runs and a rising xSLG. That makes for an interesting matchup tonight considering the San Diego Padres are great at limiting strikeouts and have only had 17.5% of plate appearances over the past two weeks with a solid .265 average.

This team is dangerous at the plate and the few strikeouts will put Arrighetti in trouble.

Houston's profile is nearly the same, with an emphasis on contact hitting alongside few strikeouts and walks. We watched Yu Darvish try to throw for contact in his final years as he lost the ability to strike out batters, and the results were mixed with a .237 xBA and .407 xSLG.

Darvish appeared to be an effective pitcher earlier in the season, but he has declined considerably since returning from injury, allowing five runs in 7 2/3 innings against the weaker Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners.

The pitchers' matchup will be tough for both teams. Even in a pitcher-friendly stadium, I expect both offenses to put up baserunners and make the game a high-scoring affair.

Astros vs. Padres – Same Game Parlay (SGP)

Over 8

Spencer Arrighetti Under 4.5 strikeouts

Jurickson Profar 1+ results

Only one of the last seven starting pitchers to face the Padres has recorded more than four strikeouts, and that has only happened twice in 12 games in September.

This team is a master of batting discipline, so despite his strong punchout rate, Arrighetti won't get away with it here. It would be only the second time since late May that something like this has happened, but that's why the bookies have set such a tempting line for over betting.

I maintain that Jurickson will continue to beat Profar. He has a .294 batting average in his last nine games, and against power pitchers like Arrighetti, he has an incredible .354 batting average in 99 at-bats this season.

Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.

Astros vs Padres odds

Astros vs Padres Live Odds

Astros vs. Padres Opening Odds

• Money line: Houston +115 | San Diego -135
• Execute line: Houston +1.5 (-180) | San Diego -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)

Astros vs. Padres Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• The Astros started as underdogs at +124 before the betting dropped to nearly 1:1 on Monday afternoon.
• DraftKings reports that 62% of the bets and 61% of the money were placed on the Padres.
• The total remains at the initial eight runs, although it briefly dropped to 7.5 on Monday morning.
• “Over” accounted for 70% of tickets and 76% of total revenue on DraftKings.

Astros vs Padres Trend

The San Diego Padres have over the game total in 43 of their last 72 games (+13.55 units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Padres here.

Game info Astros vs Padres

Astros vs Padres: Latest injuries

Astros vs. Padres Weather

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