Were Trump stocks heavily shorted before the second failed assassination attempt?

In a turn of events that bore disturbing similarities to the wave of anarchist attacks on European royalty in the 19th century, U.S. security forces thwarted a second assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump on September 15.

Given the excitement surrounding possible short selling of Trump Media (NASDAQ: DJT) shares immediately before the July attack in Butler, Pennsylvania, many investors were quick to turn their attention to such activity on Friday, September 13.

Insights can be gained from data on publicly disseminated transactions provided by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA).

According to records, there was a significant increase in cases just days before the shooting attempt.

In fact, on September 12, short volume was 2.3 million and total volume was 4.03 million, and by September 13, these numbers had jumped to 8.8 million and 15.02 million, respectively.

Additionally, Friday's short volume of 59.02% was one of the highest since August 30, but not the highest in the last 10 days. The ratio increased by about 9% between September 10 and 11, reaching a high of 61.47% a day after the Trump-Harris debate.

However, Nasdaq has yet to provide figures on short interest shares for trading after August 30, and more comprehensive conclusions will not be possible until official data for the first half of September are available.

The main reason for the interest in a possible increase in short positions ahead of the latest attack is the strange activity reported after the previous assassination.

In fact, for a while in July, it seemed as if DJT's short interest had reached unprecedented levels. What made the activity even more suspicious was that it came almost entirely from a single firm: Austin Private Wealth.

However, the July conspiracy theories were quickly refuted by a statement from the guilty company that its short position had been misrepresented and reported as 10,000 times higher than it actually was.

Why DJT short volume probably has nothing to do with the attack on Donald Trump

While such an uptrend can and should lead to considerable speculation, both given the virality of the typo indicating massive short positions before the Butler attack and the inconvenient short position data on airline stocks before the 9/11 attacks, it is more than likely that the transactions have nothing to do with the shooting.

Trading volume has increased massively since the Harris-Trump debate on September 10, accompanied by a corresponding increase in volatility.

In particular, the crash of DJT shares from $19.22 to $15.75 after the televised duel between the candidates explains the increase in short volume.

In general, trading in Trump Media stock has been dramatic over the past five days. In addition to the crash, shares staged an impressive 11% recovery on Friday, September 13, when they quickly rose from around $16.26 to around $17.92.

In addition, there had already been considerable drama surrounding the stock before the attack: Nasdaq trading was suspended several times on Friday due to high volatility.

Former President Trump criticized these actions, questioning whether Nasdaq “takes orders from the SEC” and promising that he would “hold Nasdaq and possibly the SEC accountable for their actions.”

The Republican candidate also threatened that he would switch DJT's listing to the NYSE if there were further delays and disruptions.

DJT share price analysis

Finally, there is one area where the latest attack on Trump is already having a significant and measurable impact: the performance of DJT stock over the course of the extended trading session.

Trump Media shares jumped more than 4 percent in premarket trading on Monday, but there remains some uncertainty as to whether this momentum can be maintained.

Given the post-debate decline and Friday's sharp rise to the recent close of $17.97, buying pressure could be counteracted by selling activity from investors seeking to sell their positions while they are still up or suffering limited losses.

Nevertheless, the July scenario could repeat itself. Under such circumstances, DJT could see a 20-30% rally in the coming days. However, the stock could continue to face strong downward pressure at least until the November elections, regardless of its upcoming short-term price moves.

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