Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections: Who are the key candidates? What challenges could BJP and Congress face?

On September 18, parliamentary elections will be held in Jammu and Kashmir for the first time since the abrogation of Article 370. At least 219 candidates are taking part.

This time, Jammu and Kashmir will witness a power struggle between the BJP, the Mehbooba Mufti-led People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance, while other regional parties and independent candidates will try to assert themselves.

The NC is contesting 51 of the 90 seats in the legislative assembly, while the Congress has nominated only three candidates for 32 seats. The two will have a “friendly contest” for five seats – one in Kashmir and four in Jammu – while leaving the remaining seats for the CPM and the J&K Panthers Party to win one each. The BJP will contest 19 of the 47 seats in the Kashmir Valley.

In Jammu and Kashmir, elections will be held in three phases. 90 MPs will be elected on September 18, September 25 and October 1. The results will be announced on October 8.

Who are the key candidates?

He is one of the main candidates of the BJP. Syed Showkat Gayoor Andrabi from Pampore, Jawed Ahmad Qadri from Shopian, Mohd Rafiq Wani from Anantnag West, Adv Syed Wazahat from Anantnag, Gajay Singh Rana from Doda, Rakesh Thakur from Ramban, Kuldeep Raj Dubey from Reasi, Baldev Raj Sharma from Mata Vaishno Devi , Chowdhury Abdul Ghani from Poonch Haveli, Pawan Gupta from Udhampur West, Sunil Bharadwaj from Ramnagar (SC), Yudhvir Sethi from Jammu East, Arvind Gupta from Jammu West, Sham Lal Sharma from Jammu North, Ravinder Rain from Nowshera, Vibodh Gupta from Rajouri (ST), Ghulam Mohammad Mir from Handwara, Naseer Ahmad Lone from Bandipora, RS Pathania from Udhampur East and Dr. Bharat Bhushan from Kathua (SC).

In the first phase, the Congress has announced the names of nine candidates, including Surinder Singh Channi for Tral constituency, Amanullah Mantoo from Devsar, Peerzada Mohammad Syed from Anantnag, Shaikh Zafarullah from Inderwal, Nadeem Sharief from Bhadarwah, Sheikh Riyaz from Doda and Pradeep Kumar Bhagat from Doda West.

Omar Abdullah is contesting from Budgam and Ganderbal constituencies in Central Kashmir, while Altaf Bukhari of the Apni Party is contesting from Channapora constituency in Srinagar.

In Srinagar, Ali Mohammad Sagar, the general secretary of the National Conference, is contesting from Khanyar constituency. Similarly, Mubarik Gul of NC, Khursheed Alam of PDP and Ashraf Bhat of Apni Party will contest for the Eidgah seat. Another interesting battle is in Lal Chowk constituency where Zuhaib Mir of PDP will contest against his uncle Ashraf Mir of Apni Party. Meanwhile, Ahsan Pardesi of NC is also contesting from Lal Chowk.

Where is Congress?

The Congress party has already botched its electoral strategy for the Jammu and Kashmir elections due to delays in releasing its manifesto and poor campaign efforts. Except for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's campaign in the remote Gool area of ​​Ramban district, no senior politicians have been seen campaigning in the region.

The Congress released a list of 40 “star campaigners” for the first phase of the elections, including party leader Mallikarjun Kharge, former President Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.

In contrast, the BJP has been campaigning aggressively since the Election Commission announced its poll schedule on August 16 and its star campaigners, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and other senior politicians, have already addressed several rallies in Jammu and Kashmir.

The Congress defended the delay in releasing the list of candidates by citing the “increase in terrorist activities in Jammu” and the “sudden seat-sharing agreement with the National Conference,” a party leader quoted by The News Now as saying.

The Congress reiterated that the party would work for the restoration of statehood to Jammu and Kashmir and promised to restore a bicameral system in the union territory.

Why the BJP skipped 28 seats in Kashmir

Home Minister Amit Shah had told party leaders in Kashmir that he regretted his decision not to contest all three Lok Sabha seats in the valley, so the decision not to field candidates for 28 seats will be taken after that.

In 2014, the BJP contested assembly elections for more than 30 seats in the valley but failed to win a single one. However, in Jammu, the party won 25 of the 33 seats and forged an alliance with the PDP, giving the coalition a total of 53 seats in the 87-member assembly. This alliance ended in 2018. In 2019, the state was bifurcated into two union territories.

According to a report in the Indian Express, BJP insiders are not expecting “miracles” in Kashmir. The party described it as a “tactical” move not to field candidates for all seats in the valley.

The BJP hopes that the votes in the valley will be divided between NC, PDP and smaller parties.

Why the BJP may have an advantage over other parties?

In Hindu-majority Jammu, the BJP has an additional advantage in the assembly elections due to the delimitation in 2023. Currently, the UT has 90 seats, including 43 in Jammu (compared to 37 before the delimitation) and 47 in Kashmir (compared to 46 previously).

The share of seats in the legislative assembly in Jammu increased from 42.5 percent to 47.8 percent, while in Kashmir it fell from 52.9 percent to 52.2 percent, India Today reported.

This could benefit the BJP in the upcoming elections for the union territory. Over the years, the saffron party has improved its performance in Jammu's five Muslim-majority districts – Doda, Poonch, Rajouri, Kishtwar and Ramban, noted India Today.

The main focus of the BJP leadership will be on the parliamentary seats of Gurez, Tangdhar, Uri, Tregham, Habbakadal, Lal Chowk, Shangus and Anantnag West, party officials said.

In February, the central government passed the Scheduled Tribes Order Amendment Bill for Jammu and Kashmir, which grants Scheduled Tribe status to the Pahari, Padari, Koli and Gadda Brahmins – most of whom hail from the Jammu region. The BJP hopes that the Paharis will vote for them as their long-standing demand for reservation has been met.

What challenges does the BJP face?

According to reports, the BJP's popularity in Kashmir has plummeted over the years as the saffron party failed to gain a foothold in the valley in the assembly elections. The BJP's vote share fell from 46 percent in 2019 to 24.4 percent in 2024.

Another problem facing the BJP is infighting within the party. Top politicians are angry that the party leadership is giving out tickets to defectors from the Congress and PDP.

The recent militant attacks in Jammu could pose a challenge to the BJP, which has so far won most of the seats in Jammu.

The elections will be held in three phases on September 18, 25 and October 1, 2024. The results will be announced on October 8 along with the results of the Haryana Legislative Assembly elections.