Open flanks in Kursk, risks for Moscow and Kiev

In the Russian border region of Kursk, fighting has been raging with renewed intensity for days. After the surprise offensive by the Ukrainians at the beginning of August, which resulted in a territorial gain of almost 1,000 square kilometers, the fronts had initially stabilized. But now Moscow has set in motion an unpredictable dynamic with a counterattack.

This week it looked as if Russia was serious about driving the Ukrainians out of its territory. On Wednesday, mechanized troops attacked the Ukrainian positions around the village of Snagost on the western flank of the occupied territory. According to the analysis group Deep State Map, the Ukrainian army lost about a tenth of the area it controlled, but stabilized the lines again. These are only fortified in certain places, and in many regions analysts speak of a contested gray zone. It has now expanded considerably.

The Ukrainians break through the border again

On Thursday, the Ukrainians took advantage of the movement on the Russian side to launch a thrust into the rear of the opposing army. As videos show, they used heavy vehicles to clear the fortifications and minefields on the Russian border about 20 kilometers west of the Kursk Front and advanced into new territory. According to information from both sides, they managed to dig themselves in near the village of Vesyoloye. The Deep State map shows around 40 square kilometers as contested.

Further actions will take place at the border this weekend, including at the village of Tyotkino, just 20 kilometers west of Vesyoloye. It is unclear whether the Ukrainians are aiming for a permanent presence or just want to weaken the Russians with pinpricks. A few weeks ago, the Russians were forced to withdraw from a swampy strip immediately west of Tyotkino.

Kiev has thus freed up further places on the border through which advances are possible. The aim is presumably to cut off the enemy forces in this region from supplies: the Russians are defending a strip between Snagost and Tjotkino, which the Ukrainians surround on three sides. In the north, the river Seim is a natural obstacle. The strip could be easily defended from the Ukrainian side.

The information about how close the Ukrainians have come to achieving this goal is difficult to verify. The “Khorne Group” special unit, which claims to have been involved in the breakthrough at Vesyoloye, said that 8,000 enemy soldiers would either have to withdraw quickly from the area or they would be surrounded. The Ukrainians had already destroyed the bridges over the Seim River weeks ago. The Russian counterattacks are certainly aimed at holding the strip.

Significant risks for Zelensky and Putin

For the Ukrainian analysis service Frontelligence Insight, it is clear that the warring parties attach high priority to Kursk. For Putin, the fighting on his own territory is a symbol of weakness, while Kiev is using considerable reserves that are urgently needed in Donbass. “It is increasingly likely that both sides will devote disproportionate resources to the battle, politicize it and thus increase the risks for Zelensky and Putin,” write the Ukrainian experts.

However, since the Russian president, unlike his Ukrainian counterpart, does not have to justify himself to a critical public, this pressure is currently more noticeable in Kiev. Almost every day, Zelensky and his military adviser claim that Russia has moved significant reserves out of the Donbass, although there is hardly any evidence for this. The invader continued to advance, especially south of the city of Pokrovsk, most recently with strong tank attacks, which were partially successful.

The army leadership in Kiev estimates the number of Russian soldiers deployed in Kursk at 30,000, and the president even speaks of 60,000 to 70,000. This cannot be verified. If the figures are correct, Russia would not yet be logistically able or willing to deploy the troops in a targeted manner: various military experts describe the quality of the units as very mixed, with numerous relatively inexperienced soldiers being deployed alongside formations that are considered to be well equipped.

Even if the Kursk offensive continues to offer the Ukrainians options for limited territorial gains, the question of its long-term purpose remains. In addition to the hope of weakening Russia militarily, Kiev is hinting at a deeper political calculation. The operation probably also arose from the acute fear that if Trump won, the US would lose its most important arms supplier overnight and be forced into negotiations.

Western pressure on Kyiv

The hope was that Kursk would provide something that could possibly be exchanged for the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory. With Harris' entry into the race, the risk from Washington has increased somewhat. Nevertheless, Zelensky knows that military support remains precarious, especially from Germany. It often comes with delays and political conditions, for example in the case of long-range weapons.

The political and military pressure to trade with Russia and to hold peace talks will continue to grow, even if the positions are radically different. The development of the situation in Kursk and in the Donbass will play a decisive role in determining who can maneuver themselves into a better starting position.