Three keys to victory and a forecast

Nevada's football team plays at Minnesota on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net's Chris Murray analyzes the game against the Gophers with his three keys to victory and prediction. This post is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.

Nevada (1-2) at Minnesota (1-1)

When: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. Pacific Time

Where: Huntington Bank Stadium (capacity 50,085)

Surface: FieldLawn

Weather: High 78 °F, low 66 °F, 20% chance of precipitation

Television/Radio: Big Ten Network/105.7 FM (also on Varsity Network)

On-line: None

Betting offer: Minnesota with 17; total 44.5

All series: First encounter

Last duel: First encounter

Three keys to the game

1. Defeat Gophers on the ground: Since Minnesota hired PJ Fleck in 2017, the Gophers have a record of 43-11 when running their opponents and 8-24 when being run. That's a telling stat. Minnesota relies on its running game, even though New Hampshire transfer quarterback Max Brosmer is much more of a passer than a runner. The Gophers have been unable to develop a running game this year, averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. That hasn't stopped Minnesota from running the ball, though, with its 35.5 attempts per game accounting for 56% of its plays. Against Nevada, it will stick with the running game, which has held its opponents to 3.7 yards per carry, a respectable number. Both teams look to control time of possession with their running attack, so it's a similar formula, and whichever team can follow that formula will have a big advantage. While I don't think Nevada will have much success with their running backs on the ground, the deciding factor could be quarterback Brendon Lewis making big plays with his legs.

2. Stay calm: Wolf Pack head coach Jeff Choate underscored that key earlier this week when he talked about his team's penalties, particularly the personal fouls. Choate said there will be consequences for players who take 15-yard penalties against Minnesota — they'll be benched. Nevada had the most penalties (14) and penalty yards (134) in a game in the last 15 seasons in last week's 20-17 loss to Georgia Southern, costing the Wolf Pack the win. Nevada is averaging 9.67 penalties for 86.67 yards per game, ranking in the bottom 11 in the nation. Choate wants an aggressive team that plays with pride and sets the tone with its physicality, but the Wolf Pack can't give away many yards through a lack of composure. Nevada needs to play cleaner if it wants to pull off the upset, and that means no turnovers or self-inflicted injuries, the latter of which has been a problem so far in 2024.

3. Implementation in the fourth quarter: This might be too optimistic from Nevada's perspective, as the Wolf Pack are underdogs by 17 points. But Nevada has been underdogs in its first three games and still won all four of those quarters. The problem, however, has been execution in the fourth quarter. Nevada scored just seven points in the fourth quarter and allowed 25 points, with some crucial mistakes thrown in. Even in the win over Troy, the Wolf Pack were clearly outnumbered in the final 15 minutes before pulling off a game-winning 2-point conversion stop with less than 30 seconds left. Learning how to execute in crunch time is a process Nevada is still going through, having gone 4-20 the last two seasons, with 16 of those losses by double digits. If the Wolf Pack makes the game a one-possession game in the fourth quarter, it would put more pressure on Minnesota, the clear favorite, to avoid the big upset. Nevada has set itself the goal of winning its first three games by a combined 10 points.

forecast

Minnesota 27, Nevada 17: The betting odds for this game have gone from 11 points for Nevada to 17 points, so bettors are clearly favoring the Gophers, and it's easy to see why. But Nevada has generally played well against the Big Ten over the years, and this Wolf Pack team looks capable of matching the physical game the Gophers are trying to establish. It helps that Minnesota's running game has been in shambles over the first two weeks. But the Gophers should lead 2-0 — they outscored North Carolina in the season opener but missed two field goals and lost a fumble inside their 25-yard line — and should get past the Wolf Pack, although I rate Nevada as covering the line. Season balance: 2-1 (outright); 2-1 (against the spread)

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight into Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.