Result prediction for Nebraska vs. Northern Iowa by an expert football model

So far, Dylan Raiola has proven what Nebraska fans expected: a five-star quarterback phenom who has the skills to save the Cornhuskers' offense and put the team back on the map. Now, after a non-conference win, he and the Huskers take the next step on that path, hosting Northern Iowa on Saturday in Week 3 of college football.

There's still a long way to go, especially once the Big Ten schedule begins, but so far Raiola has completed over 73 percent of his pass attempts without committing a turnover, and Nebraska is up 2-0.

He completed 23 of 30 passes in last week's 28-10 win over Colorado, catapulting the Cornhuskers back into the AP's top 25 rankings.

But it was also Nebraska's strong defensive effort that led to the win: They sacked Shedeur Sanders five times while applying constant pressure and scored a touchdown on a pick-six, holding nine straight opponents to 24 points or fewer – the Huskers' longest such streak since 2009.

What can we expect from this matchup? To do that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Nebraska and Northern Iowa compare in this Week 3 college football game.

As expected, the simulations assume that the Cornhuskers will do well at home against this Missouri Valley Conference challenger.

SP+ predicts Nebraska to defeat Northern Iowa by a projected score of 27 to 5 and win the game by a projected 21.9 points.

However, since it is quite difficult to score exactly 5 points, we round this number up and make the forecast a more plausible result of 28 to 6 in favor of Nebraska and a victory difference of 22 points.

The model gives the Huskers a 92 percent chance of a clear victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency in college football” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 47-44 against the spread with a winning percentage of 51.6.

According to the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Nebraska is a 30.5-point favorite against Northern Iowa, with the total point total for the game set at 47.5.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for a Nebraska outright win at -20,000 and for Northern Iowa at +3,500.

When using this projection to bet on the game, here are some things to consider…

Other analysis models also suggest that the Cornhuskers will dominate the game.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select the winners.

Nebraska is projected to win in 95.1 percent of updated computer simulations, while Northern Iowa is ahead in the remaining 4.9 percent of simulations.

The index predicts that on the same field with both teams currently configured, Nebraska will outscore Northern Iowa by 26.7 points, which is not enough to make up the difference.

When: Saturday, September 14
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
Television: Big Ten Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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