Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers Preview: 5 Things to Watch for in Week 2

The Indianapolis Colts are on the road for the first time this season, heading to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers in Week 2.

The two franchises don't face each other often, with the last meeting coming in 2020 when the Colts won a game 34-31 in overtime.

Indianapolis has won three straight games against the Packers; the Green Bay Packers' last win in this series came in 2008.

Both teams will be looking to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start to their season. Here are five things to look out for when they take the field on Sunday afternoon:

Preview Colts vs. Packers: What you should pay attention to

1. Can the Colts make the Packers offense one-dimensional?

With Jordan Love questionable but expected to miss the game, the Colts have a chance to get beat by a Malik Willis-led offense. The first step in that plan is not letting Josh Jacobs and their running attack succeed on the ground like Joe Mixon and the Houston Texans did in Week 1 against Indianapolis.

This was concerning because even with Grover Stewart in the lineup, the Texans were successful on the ground. According to Next Gen Stats, the Colts defense allowed 4.0 yards per carry and a 42.3% run success rate when Stewart was on the field (26 carries), but allowed 7.8 yards per carry and a 78.6% run success rate when Stewart was off the field (14 carries).

Of the 26 runs Stewart completed on the field, six resulted in a loss or no gain (23.1%). All 14 runs Stewart completed off the field resulted in a positive yardage result.

Jacobs is coming off a solid performance in his first game with the Packers, rushing for 84 yards and averaging 5.3 YPC. Gus Bradley can't afford that kind of success on the ground or it will be an easy day for Willis. The more often his defense can force Green Bay into third-and-long situations, the less they should be on the field and the more opportunities there will be to force turnovers.

The second step in making their offense one-dimensional is the offense. The quicker they can get the game within two or more points, the more pressure the Green Bay Packers offense will put on to score points and give the game up, especially if Indianapolis can build that kind of lead in the second half.

It will take a team effort, but if the Colts can do that, they should be able to win the game in the fourth quarter.

2. Anthony Richardson’s next step

Week 1 was a great glimpse into how explosive Indy's passing attack can be this season with Richardson back in the fold. According to Next Gen Stats, Richardson completed two passes with an aerial distance of at least 60 yards in Week 1, making him the first quarterback in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) to complete two such passes in the same game.

Richardson averaged 16.5 air yards per attempt, the most of any quarterback since Week 3 of 2021 (Lamar Jackson, 19.3). Richardson also averaged 17.3 air yards per completed pass, the fifth-most of any quarterback in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (minimum five completed passes).

He also targeted a vertical route on 5 of 19 attempts (26%), which is the third-highest rate by a Colts quarterback in the Shane Steichen era. Those numbers could have been even better if he had been able to hit Adonai Mitchell on a few missed opportunities.

The next step for Richardson is not only capitalizing on missed opportunities down the court, but also making layups that help move the chains. Improving his accuracy is an expected progression for him, and once he gets that area of ​​his game under control, his opportunities as a passer will be limitless.

The positive is that while Richardson works on improving his accuracy, he will always be able to create plays like his 60-yard touchdown to Alec Pierce.

Like everyone else, I can't get over that throw from Anthony Richardson to Alec Pierce. I've been waiting for a quarterback with an arm that can take advantage of Pierce's skills.

PS The #Colts The fan in the black Shaquille Leonard jersey always makes me laugh during the end zone shot. pic.twitter.com/aSjSOUkdoY

— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) 9 September 2024

3. What will the secondary look like without JuJu Brents and Julian Blackmon?

There was bad news for the Colts this week when it was announced that the 2023 second-round pick would be placed on the injured list and his season may be over. Losing Brents at this point in the season is a major blow to a defense that was heavily depending on him to take a leap forward in year two and help stabilize a cornerback room that lacks proven depth.

This puts a lot of pressure on Jaylon Jones and likely Dallis Flowers to step in in his absence. There's a chance Gus Bradley could use Samual Womack III or Chris Lammons as the nickel corner and put Kenny Moore II on the perimeter, but the question is, would it be a detriment to move Moore II away from a position he's good at?

Another part of the secondary to keep an eye on is safety. Blackmon didn't practice all week due to the same shoulder injury he suffered late in 2023. He was ruled out Friday. This is another big blow to the defense, as he and Nick Cross could help out at the nickel position if Bradley wanted to use Rodney Thomas II or bring up Rodney Harrison Jr. from the practice squad this week.

There are a lot of questions about the Indy secondary heading into Sunday, but the good news is that they likely won't have to face Jordan Love, who would have his hands full given the Colts' back line concerns.

4. Can the running attack dominate?

The potential of the Indy offense with Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor and that offensive line is what got analysts excited about the Colts early in the season. Taylor and the offensive line just couldn't produce anything positive in Week 1.

He averaged 3.0 yards per carry, largely due to limited running routes and Houston's defenders being careful not to allow him to take over the game. On the plus side, Taylor's presence helped open up wide running lanes for Richardson when he decided to pull the ball on QB reads.

It wasn't a great day on the ground for JT, but this play is an example of what his presence will bring to the running attack with AR in the backfield.

4 defenders focus on him, leading to a 13-yard run for Anthony Richardson. pic.twitter.com/qu9PcIj1Cc

— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) 9 September 2024

The Packers will be watching to defend the offense. In Week 1, they allowed Saquon Barkley to run for 109 yards and two touchdowns. Green Bay's new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley will want to prevent Taylor from having similar success, but if he opts for a similar approach to the Texans, will Richardson be able to create those explosive aerial plays?

The great thing about Richardson's arm is that the opposing defense has to respect it, so they can't overload the box to stop the run. This can help the offensive line open up running lanes for their defender.

If Indianapolis can get a rushing attack going on Sunday, it will also help the play-action attack that Richardson excelled at in Week 1. According to Next Gen Stats, Richardson used play action on 11 of 24 dropbacks (46%) in Week 1 against the Texans, which is the highest play-action dropback rate by a Colts quarterback under head coach Shane Steichen.

Richardson completed 6 of 11 such passes for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns (13.0 avg.). If Indy can get Taylor going early, it can help get that lead to two or more points and make the Green Bay offense one-dimensional, as I suggested.

5. Can Gus Bradley confuse Malik Willis?

If the Colts manage to make the Packers one-dimensional on offense, will Bradley's defense seize the opportunity? Green Bay traded Willis two weeks ago, so he's still fresh in Matt LaFleur's scheme. This will be the first week he gets real workouts with the starting pass catchers, so one might assume there will be timing issues when they pass the ball.

The first area where Bradley can beat Willis is his defensive front. According to Next Gen Stats, Willis has recorded an average throw time of 3.24 seconds on his 67 career pass attempts, the longest average time among 78 quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts as of 2022.

Willis has been pressured on 52.1% of his dropbacks since 2022, a league-high. He has been sacked on 15 of his 49 dropbacks under pressure (30.6%), good for the second-highest sack rate under pressure since 2022. He has also posted a league-low success rate on dropbacks under pressure of 18.4% since 2022 and is the only quarterback with less than 20%.

This promises to be a great day for the Indy defense. Although they struggled in run defense in Week 1, they were active in the pass rush and you would think that Willis wouldn't be able to make plays under pressure like CJ Stroud did against this defense.

There's confidence the defense will be successful on Sunday, but what about the defense in the back? With the restructuring of the secondary, Bradley may want to stick with the fundamentals of his defensive scheme, but based on a limited sample size, he may want to change his coverage if his front four can't consistently pressure Willis.

According to Next Gen Stats, Willis has completed 10 of 15 passes against Cover 3 for 84 yards in his career, for a 38.1% dropback success rate. Against all other coverages, he has completed 25 of 52 passes for 266 yards and three interceptions in his career, for a 27.4% dropback success rate. Indy's defense utilized Cover 3 under Bradley in both 2022 (40.1%) and 2023 (50.1%), with a top-four rate.

Chances are Bradley will stick with what he's doing, but you'd at least like to see his defense not show what they're doing on the backend before the snap while confusing Willis as to which of the front seven is going after him.

There's a lot of pressure on Bradley after Week 1, and the pressure will only increase if his defense allows Willis to have the best game of his career on Sunday.

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