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Pirates Series Preview: Arrrrgh, ready for some baseball?

Pirates Series Preview: Arrrrgh, ready for some baseball?

The Pirates haven't had a winning season since 2018, but their rebuild seems to have them on the brink of being a .500 team, with hopes of getting over the hump next year. They have the third-youngest pitching staff in baseball with two of the most electrifying young pitchers in baseball. The team flirted with .500 and actually had a winning record at the trade deadline — when they were buyers with the long-term in mind. But an 8-19 August dashed any hopes of making the postseason.

Kansas City Royals (80-67) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (70-76) at PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

Royals: 4.71 runs scored/game (10th in MLB), 4.07 runs allowed/game (8th)

Pirates: 4.24 runs scored/game (19th), 4.55 runs allowed/game (21st)

The Bucs have played better in September and are currently enjoying a four-game winning streak, including a sweep of the Marlins, a team they are 7-0 against this year. The Pirates are just 39-53 this year against teams with a .500 or better record.

Pirates expected starting lineup

Starting line-up P.A. Human Resources SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
Starting line-up P.A. Human Resources SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R) 435 8 9 .270 .313 .381 1.8
LF Bryan Reynolds (S) 627 22 10 .279 .346 .452 2.1
CF Oneil Cruz (L) 545 19 22 .266 .325 .460 3.4
DH Andrew McCutchen (R) 470 20 3 .241 .338 .432 1.0
C Joey Bart (R) 236 13 0 .267 .343 .495 1.4
1B Rowdy Tellez (L) 400 13 1 .249 .303 .403 -0.3
2B Nick Gonzales (R) 329 5 4 .274 .308 .388 1.1
RF Bryan De La Cruz (R) 578 19 4 .235 .274 .384 -0.9
3B Jared Triolo (R) 392 8 7 .212 .298 .317 0.4
bank P.A. Human Resources SB BA OBA SLG fWAR
C Yasmani Grandal (S) 220 7 1 .219 .290 .378 1.0
IF Billy Cook (R) 11 0 0 .180 .182 .273 -0.1
IF Alika Williams (R) 96 0 1 .207 .242 .299 -0.3
BY Connor Joe (R) 403 9 2 .229 .318 .373 0.5
BY Michael A. Taylor (R) 297 5 12 .191 .249 .285 0.3

Only four teams have hit fewer home runs than the Pirates, and they have the fifth-lowest on-base percentage in baseball. The Pirates average 4.39 runs per game at home, 4.08 on the road, and 54 percent of their home runs have come at PNC Park.

Oneil Cruz is a poor man's Elly de la Cruz, but the Pirates moved him to center field because of his unreliable defense. At bat, he has plenty of power and speed, but has the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 30.6. Veteran Andrew McCutchen is hitting .339/.414/.746 with 7 home runs in 17 games since early August, despite missing some time with a knee injury. Bryan De La Cruz is hitting just .200/.281/.267 in 33 games since the Pirates acquired him from the Marlins at the trade deadline. Joey Bart, acquired after being signed by the Giants, ranks 14th among all catchers with 13 home runs. Former Royals outfielder Michael A. Taylor is hitting just .137/.203/.214 at home this year.

The Pirates have the highest stolen base success rate in baseball at 85 percent. Taylor and newly acquired infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa are excellent defenders, but the rest of the team is weak defensively.

Expected pitching duels

Friday, September 13, 5:40 CT EPOCH FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Friday, September 13, 5:40 CT EPOCH FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Alec Marsh 4.66 4.38 116.0 8.2 2.6 1.2
RHP Luis L. Ortiz 3.26 4.25 118.2 6.8 2.8 0.8
Saturday, September 14, 12:05 CT EPOCH FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Michael Wacha 3.34 3.73 151.0 7.8 2.4 2.9
RHP Mitch Keller 3.85 3.92 163.2 8.4 2.3 2.3
Sunday, September 15, 12:35 CT EPOCH FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
RHP Brady Singer 3.42 3.68 163.1 8.4 2.5 2.8
RHP Jared Jones 3.82 3.97 108.1 9.6 2.6 1.7

Luis L. Ortiz (not to be confused with the Phillies' Luis F. Ortiz) began the year in the bullpen but has flourished since moving into the rotation in July, posting a 3.10 ERA in 12 starts. Left-handers have hit 10 of the 13 home runs he's allowed, although right-handers have a higher batting average against him. He throws his slider most often, missing 30.1 percent of the time, while also incorporating a 96 mph fastball, sinker and cutter.

Mitch Keller was an All-Star for the Pirates last year, winning 13 games as a pitcher with 2.9 rWAR. He got off to a good start this year but has struggled in his last six starts with a 6.61 ERA and opponents hitting .319/.354/.556. Keller has been much better at home with a 2.82 ERA in Pittsburgh compared to 4.82 on the road. He has a big arsenal with good control and throws a 94 mph fastball, sinker, sweeper, cutter, curve and slider.

The Royals will miss pitching phenom Paul Skenes, but Jared Jones has been nearly as hitless with a 26 percent strikeout rate. In his last start against the Nationals, he managed nine strikeouts with no walks in his seven innings, just his third game since returning from the injured list due to a lat injury. Jones' 97.3 mph fastball is one of the fastest in baseball, and opponents are hitting just .187 with a 38.5 percent whiff rate against his slider.

Pirates bullpen

Open-plan office EPOCH FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
Open-plan office EPOCH FIP IP K/9 BB/9 fWAR
LHP Aroldis Chapman 4.18 3.28 56.0 14.6 6.3 0.8
RHP Dennis Santana 4.20 3.10 64.1 8.8 2.7 0.9
RHP Colin Holderman 3.20 4.46 45.0 9.8 4.6 0.0
RHP David Bednar 5.92 4.59 51.2 9.2 3.8 0.0
RHP Kyle Nicolas 3.76 3.84 52.2 9.1 5.1 0.2
Left-hander Jalen Beeks 4.15 3.94 65.0 7.3 3.3 0.7
RHP Carmen Mlodzinski 3.56 3.55 43.0 7.7 3.1 0.5
Left back Ryan Borucki 8.10 4.53 6.2 13.5 1.4 0.0
Left-hander Joey Wentz 5.40 4.46 58.1 9.9 4.5 -0.1

The Pirates' bullpen has the third-most blown saves in baseball and the fourth-worst ERA at 4.65. Former All-Star David Bednar has completely collapsed in the second half with a 7.45 ERA since the All-Star break and six total blown saves, prompting manager Derek Shelton to remove him from the closer's role. Former Royals reliever Aroldis Chapman will likely get most of the save opportunities, but it could be a rollercoaster ride as he has the highest walk rate among relievers but the sixth-highest strikeout rate. Dennis Santana has not allowed a run in 18 innings of his last 15 appearances. Jalen Beeks has a 2.30 ERA in 20 games since the Pirates acquired him from the Rockies, and left-handed hitters are hitting .182/.250/.261 against him. Kansas City native Joey Wentz was signed by the Pirates earlier this month.

The Royals don't visit beautiful PNC Park often, but they've lost 11 of their last 14 games there and haven't won a series since 2000. The Pirates swept them last year at Kauffman, but that's a different Royals club. The Pirates have some good pitchers and can be a bit aggressive, but expect the Royals to win this series on the road.

Opinion poll

How will the Royals fare in this series against the Pirates?

  • 20%

    Royals win 3-0

    (28 votes)

  • 66%

    Royals win 2 of 3

    (90 votes)

  • 11%

    Pirates win 2 out of 3

    (15 votes)


136 votes in total

Vote now

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