Brewers vs Diamondbacks: Predictions, Tips, Odds – 9-13

The Arizona Diamondbacks welcome the Milwaukee Brewers to Chase Field for a National League series this weekend, with game one beginning tonight at 9:40 p.m. ET.

Arizona is currently the favorite at -115, but my MLB prediction for the Brewers vs. Diamondbacks game leans toward the underdog mainly because of the pitchers' duel.

Read more about why Freddy Peralta and the Brew Crew are among my top MLB picks for Friday, September 13th.

Prediction for Brewers vs. Diamondbacks

My best bet
Brewers ML (-105 at BetMGM)

My analysis

Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez is on the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks and is likely to have a tough time, as he has a 5.83 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP in six starts this season.

His underlying numbers are even worse, as the left-hander has a 6.19 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBAA, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard hit rate. He has trouble with his control and that puts Arizona in a bad spot considering the Milwaukee Brewers start Freddy Peralta.

Peralta is Milwaukee's de facto ace this season, having a 10-8 record with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP after 29 starts. The right-hander's stats are equally strong, as he ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard hit rate.

Peralta also comes into this matchup in good form, going 3-1 in his last five starts with a 2.33 ERA. That success should continue against the D-backs, a team he has gone 3-0 against in four career meetings with a 0.55 ERA.

But the Brewers' pitching advantage doesn't end there, as their bullpen also surpasses Arizona's in ERA, FIP and xFIP.

Brewers vs Diamondbacks – Same Game Combo (SGP)

Brewers ML

Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Gary Sanchez Over 0.5 hits

We're also betting on Peralta in the strikeout market, as he ranks in the 87th percentile in whiff rate and 79th percentile in strikeout rate. His strikeout rate is 4.5, a total he's doubled in each of his last two starts against Arizona.

We also need some offense from the Brewers, which brings me to Gary Sanchez: In 26 career appearances against Rodriguez, Sanchez has a .250 batting average, a .600 slugging average and a .429 slugging average. He's also had a hit in three of his last four games.

Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.

Odds for Brewers vs. Diamondbacks

Live odds for Brewers vs. Diamondbacks

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Opening Odds

• Money line: Milwaukee +100 | Arizona -120
• Execute line: Milwaukee +1.5 | Arizona -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• Arizona entered the race as a -120 favorite, but the bets have since been reduced to -115.
• The total value was 8.5 at the beginning and remained at this value on Friday afternoon.
• I would expect that total to increase to nine rather than eight, as both teams rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and stolen bases.

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Trend

Milwaukee has won Peralta's last two games against Arizona. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Diamondbacks here.

Match info Brewers vs Diamondbacks

Brewers vs Diamondbacks: Latest injuries

Weather for Brewers vs. Diamondbacks

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