Virginia Football vs. Maryland Match Preview, Score Prediction

2023: 8-5, 4-5 Big Ten
2024: 1-1, 0-1 Big Ten

It remains to be seen how Maryland will fare in the post-Taulia Tagovailoa era. The Terrapins never quite reached the heights they had hoped for under Tagovailoa, who went 23-18 as Maryland's starting quarterback, but they finished at least .500 in all four seasons with him at quarterback and Tagovailoa finished his career as the Big Ten's all-time leading passer with 11,256 passing yards.

Now, Maryland's offense is in the hands of redshirt junior Billy Edwards Jr., a native of Springfield, Virginia, who began his career at Wake Forest before transferring to Maryland in 2022. Although he started behind Tagovailoa, Edwards has considerable game experience, having played in 17 games and started three times, including Maryland's win over Auburn in the TransPerfect Music City Bowl. Edwards was named the MVP of that bowl game after throwing for 126 yards and a touchdown and running for another 50 yards and a score.

Edwards and the Maryland offense started 2024 strong, scoring 70 points against a likely bad UConn team. But that bubble of momentum may have burst last week when the Terps struggled, suffering a 27-24 loss at home to Michigan State. Maryland intercepted the opposing quarterback twice and recovered a fumble, but still conceded 484 yards of offense, including 363 yards through the air. All three of Michigan State's touchdowns were passing scores, potentially pointing to some weaknesses in Maryland's secondary.

Edwards completed 26 of his 34 pass attempts (76.5%) for 253 yards and two touchdowns and threw one interception. The majority of those passes went to Tai Felton, who had 11 catches for 152 yards and a touchdown. Look for the UVA secondary to focus on Felton in the passing game to avoid a repeat of last week, when Wake receiver Donavon Greene had 11 catches, 166 yards and a touchdown.

Maryland didn't have much of a running game against Michigan State, just 86 yards on 31 attempts (less than three yards per run). So the Terps could rely heavily on passing in their game like Virginia did. If that's the case, this game could come down to which team can best limit the opponent's passing game. Was Virginia's breakout pass rush against Wake Forest (six sacks) the deciding factor, and can the Cavaliers repeat that performance against Maryland? Getting to and disrupting Billy Edwards Jr. could be the biggest key to the game for Virginia.

On the other side of the ball, Maryland's defensive leader is veteran linebacker Ruben Hyppolite II, who was named to the Second-Team All-Big Ten selection in the preseason and recorded nine tackles against Michigan State, an interception against UConn and five solo tackles against Virginia last season.

Maryland is giving up nearly 300 passing yards per game (292.5), but opposing quarterbacks are completing just 53.5% of their passes. The Terrapins have just three sacks in their first two games (two of them against Michigan State), but they have also recorded four interceptions, including two by defensive back Glendon Miller.

Colandrea’s decision-making and ball security
Last season against Maryland, Anthony Colandrea threw three interceptions on consecutive possessions and the Terrapins scored a touchdown after each of those interceptions, turning a one-point game into a 28-point victory. The game against Wake Forest was the opposite. Although Colandrea threw two interceptions, only one of which was his fault, he rebounded from that bad interception and orchestrated two crucial touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to lead UVA's comeback. This game is a big chance for Colandrea to prove how much he has matured in his decision-making. Doing that against the Terrapins, who have four interceptions this season but otherwise have weaknesses in their pass defense, will be crucial.

An encore for Virginia's Pass Rush
This was one of our keys to last week's game, and the Cavaliers responded with six sacks, five of which came by non-defensive linemen. That was a major breakthrough for a Virginia defense that had just one sack in Week 1 against Richmond and just 11 sacks for the entire 2023 season. It was also a significant plus point in an otherwise subpar performance by the UVA defense. With two games to prove it, two strong passing offenses should be on display Saturday night at Scott Stadium. Can the Cavaliers gain an advantage in this game by putting pressure on Billy Edwards Jr. and forcing him into a few mistakes?

Two elite pass catchers
This game features two exceptional wide receivers: Malachi Fields of Virginia and Tai Felton of Maryland. Entering this season, Fields had yet to record a 100-yard pass-catching game. He has reached the 100-yard mark in the first two games of the 2024 season, including an 11-catch, 148-yard game in the win at Wake Forest. Felton was even better, entering Week 2 as the nation's leading receiver with 330 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, there are other playmakers on both teams' offenses, but Fields and Felton are game-changers. If either team can successfully contain the opposing team's WR1, it could make all the difference.

This game is a huge opportunity for Virginia to prove that the program is on the mend. The Cavaliers are looking to get off to their first 3-0 start since 2019, and doing so against an old rival that beat them last season would make the game even more special. This game could very well be tight until the very end, but as the Hoos showed last week, they are confident in their ability to close out close games. Virginia makes a statement in front of a large home crowd at Scott Stadium and beats Maryland to remain undefeated.

Result prediction: Virginia 34, Maryland 28

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