Reviewing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris’ economic claims at the debate

PHILADELPHIA– Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump met for the first time on Tuesday in their first presidential debate of the 2024 election, moderated by ABC News.

The high-stakes, 90-minute debate took place at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, with Trump and Harris making their arguments for the White House.

MORE: Fact check on the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump

As Democratic and Republican candidates debated the nation's most pressing issues, ABC News live fact-checked their statements on the economy for answers that were exaggerated, needed more context or were incorrect.

HARRIS CLAIM: 16 Nobel laureates say Trump's plan would increase inflation and plunge us into recession

FACT CHECK: Mostly true

Harris correctly describes what the Nobel laureates said about inflation during Trump's presidency: “There is a legitimate concern that Donald Trump will reignite that inflation.” But while the group describes Harris' agenda as “far superior” to Trump's, their letter does not explicitly predict a recession by mid-2025. Rather, the group wrote: “We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S. economic standing in the world and a destabilizing effect on the U.S. domestic economy.”

The 16 economists are George Akerlof, Angus Deaton, Claudia Goldin, Oliver Hart, Eric S. Maskin, Daniel L. McFadden, Paul R. Milgrom, Roger B. Myerson, Edmund S. Phelps, Paul M. Romer, Alvin E. Roth , William F. Sharp, Robert J. Shiller, Christopher A. Sims, Joseph Stiglitz, and Robert B. Wilson.

-Louis Jacobson of PolitiFact

HARRIS' CLAIM: Trump wants a “20 percent tax on everyday goods” that would cost families “about $4,000 more per year.”

FACT CHECK: True, but needs context

Trump has proposed a universal tariff of 10 to 20 percent on all U.S. imports, from cars and electronics to wine, groceries and many other goods. He has also proposed a 60 percent tariff on imports from China. Vice President Harris called the plan “Trump's sales tax,” although the former president has not explicitly proposed such a tax. But independent economists say the proposed import tariffs would undoubtedly lead to higher prices for American consumers across the board.

The exact financial impact on families is difficult to predict, and estimates vary widely—depending on the study, the additional annual cost per household ranges from $1,700 to nearly $4,000. Trump has not called for tax increases on American families.

He has proposed exempting social benefits and tips from taxes and extending the individual tax breaks introduced in 2017.

-Devin Dwyer of ABC News

TRUMP'S CLAIM: Trump said, “We have inflation like few people have ever seen before. Probably the worst in the history of our country.”

FACT CHECK: False, but very high

It is true that the annual inflation rate peaked at around 9% (June 2022) at the beginning of Joe Biden's presidency, but that is not the highest it has ever been. There are several examples of inflation rates in the US being much higher than 9%, including the immediate post-World War II period and during the oil embargo and shortages in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when the inflation rate peaked at 14.5%.

The inflation rate is 2.9% annual inflation in July 2024, the lowest level in three years. It is also worth noting that President Biden has falsely claimed that he inherited a high rate from his predecessor. In fact, inflation was 1.4% when he took office.

*Data for this fact check was collected from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, or St. Louis Fed.

HARRIS CLAIM: Harris said, “Trump has left us with the worst unemployment since the Great Depression.”

FACT CHECK: Needs context

The unemployment rate peaked at 14.8% in April 2020, when Trump was in office—actually the highest since the Great Depression, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But when Trump left office, unemployment quickly fell to 6.4% in January 2021 as the economy rebalanced. And that 6.4% unemployment rate is still better than the 10% peak during the Great Recession in October 2009.

Ignoring pandemic statistics, the lowest unemployment rate under Trump was only slightly higher than the lowest under Biden. Both figures were good: 3.5 percent under Trump and 3.4 percent under Biden were the lowest rates, respectively, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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