Prediction for Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga: Expert tip for the unified super middleweight boxing match

With the Mexican Independence Day weekend approaching, martial arts fans are expecting only one elite-level world champion.

Canelo Alvarez will defend his WBA, WBC, WBO and Ring Magazine titles against undefeated knockout fighter Edgar Berlanga on September 14 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The 12-round fight plus supporting act will be broadcast by DAZN PPV and Prime Video in the USA.

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Canelo (61-2-2, 39 KOs) lost his undisputed status before this fight because he refused to take a mandatory submission. Mexico's pound-for-pound star was stripped of the IBF version of the crown because he did not face William Scull, who is scheduled to contest the vacant title later in the year against Vladimir Shishkin. Despite the political intervention, however, the unified champion remains focused on the task ahead.

“I am very excited about this fight between Mexico and Puerto Rico,” Canelo said in a PBC press release when the fight was announced.

“It is exciting to once again be part of a great fight between Mexico and Puerto Rico in the ring, because in the past we have always offered unforgettable fights full of passion.”

Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs) benefits from Canelo's decision. The Puerto Rican power puncher is ranked No. 7 by The Ring and No. 8 by the WBC in the 168-pound division. His biggest achievement is a streak of 16 consecutive first-round knockouts early in his career, but since moving up a division, the challenger has had to hold out to the end in five of his last six fights.

The Sporting News announces the odds before the fight and predicts the outcome of the main event and the preliminary fights.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga odds, bets

According to DraftKings, Canelo is the favorite (-1800) while Berlanga is the underdog (+1000). The draw is at +2500.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga Prediction

This looks like good matchmaking from Team Canelo.

Despite his undefeated record and fearsome reputation as a puncher, Berlanga tends to lash out wildly and can get frustrated when big bombs don't have the desired effect. He's an excellent fighter, but he's far from finished.

Canelo is adept defensively and still one of the best counter-punchers in world boxing. The champion excels against heavyweights and always has, so it's hard to predict whether Berlanga will succeed here. History tells us that you have to outbox Canelo (Mayweather, Bivol, Golovkin 1) and control the fight. No one expects Berlanga to outbox the Mexican icon and win on points.

The odds suggest that Berlanga has a chance as a puncher at best, but even that is unlikely. Canelo has a rock-hard jaw, as evidenced by the fact that he has rarely been shaken and has never been down in his 65-fight career. Is Berlanga really the guy who can take the win?

Canelo hasn't won by stoppage in nearly four years, so an absolutely dominant victory by unanimous decision in the 12th round is likely.

Forecast: Canelo UD12

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Predictions for the pre-fight between Canelo Alvarez and Edgar Berlanga

Erislandy Lara vs Danny Garcia

• WBA middleweight championship fight

Garcia has a 3-1 record over the last five years and is the much smaller man in this fight.

Inactivity is a boxer's greatest enemy and left-handed Lara's style is designed to exploit ring rust and indecision.

Garcia will do well to hear the final bell.

Forecast: Lara TKO 10

Caleb Plant vs Trevor McCumby

• Super middleweight fight without title

McCumby has a stunning 28-0 record, but has never faced anyone in Plant's class.

Plant has been out of the ring for 18 months since his loss to David Benavidez, but he should be fit enough to find a rhythm and outpoint his opponent in 12 rounds.

Forecast: Work UD 12

Stephen Fulton vs. Carlos Castro

• Featherweight fight without title

The comeback has been a long time coming for Fulton, who suffered the first loss of his career and dropped two super bantamweight title belts to Naoya Inoue in July 2023.

In the featherweight division, the American slickster returns against Castro, who lost to both Luis Nery and Brandon Figueroa, his only setbacks in his career.

Chances are that Fulton is too talented for Castro and will come away with a clear point victory.

Forecast: Fulton UD12

Rolando Romero vs. Manuel Jaimes

• Super lightweight fight without title

After a one-sided loss to Isaac Cruz in March, Romero could have been forgiven for sitting out the rest of 2024. However, the former WBA champion is back in action and hoping for a title shot.

Jaimes is an unknown quantity and Romero is the heavy favorite on paper. The thing is, you never know which version of “Rolly” will show up. If he's on form, he can win this fight in the long run, but if he's distracted, it's a recipe for disaster.

I'm predicting Romero to win, but if I had to predict an upset on this card, it would be this fight.

Forecast: Romero TKO 8