Who will win the debate between Trump and Harris? Betting markets show a clear favorite

There will be a lot at stake in the first presidential debate between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday night, and several betting markets have already picked a clear favorite who they believe will be crowned the winner.

As of Tuesday afternoon, traders on Polymarket gave Harris a 75 percent chance of winning the debate, according to polls, while Trump's chances were just 25 percent. BetUS also favored the Democrat over the Republican before the candidates entered the debate, with implied probabilities of 68.75 percent versus 39.22 percent.

But while Harris is expected to win the battle according to both forecasting platforms, the same markets predict that Trump will win the war.

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A BetUS spokesperson told FOX Business that despite Harris being the favorite for Tuesday's debate, Trump had been the favorite since the afternoon based on election odds.

Former President Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, August 17, 2024. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

In the hours before the debate, Polymarket traders also favored Trump as the election winner, giving him a 52 percent chance, while Harris was given a 45 percent chance.

The average of Real Clear Politics' six betting markets showed Trump ahead of Harris with a 51.7% chance of winning, while Harris' odds were 46.7%.

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According to PredictIt, however, the Democrat was considered a slight favorite for the White House: Harris had a 53 percent chance of winning, while Trump only had 52 percent.

Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University and an expert in prediction markets, told FOX Business that several factors could play a role in explaining why Harris is overwhelmingly the favorite in prediction markets for the debate but is expected to lose the election.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at IBEW Local Union #5 on September 2, 2024 in Pittsburgh. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images/Getty Images)

He said Polymarket, for example, uses the Ipsos/538 poll to determine the likely winner of the debate, “and these are predominantly liberal polls, so they will predominantly favor the more liberal candidate.”

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Crane also suggested that many people may believe that debates in general have only a limited impact on the outcome of a campaign – unless, of course, a debate is completely one-sided, such as the one between Trump and President Biden in June, which led to calls for Biden to drop out of the race.

“There are two questions here,” he said. “One is, how important are the debates? The other is, does the poll about who won the debate actually reflect who won the debate?”