Trump and Harris are neck and neck ahead of presidential debate

• Attention head-to-head race: Trump overtakes Harris on economic issues, but she is ahead on social issues

• Health and honesty vs. economy and immigration: The debate dynamics on Tuesday evening

ISTANBUL

The US presidential election is just around the corner, and the highly anticipated debate between former President Donald Trump and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday night is expected to be one of the defining moments of the race.

As both candidates prepare for their first direct confrontation, recent polls show it is a neck-and-neck race with voters sharply divided on key issues.

According to the poll, Trump is ahead on the economy and immigration, while Harris is ahead on social issues and personal qualities such as honesty and health.

The debate is crucial to persuade potentially undecided voters and determine the final phase of the campaign. Since the race is extremely close, the outcome of the debate could be decisive in the battle for the White House.

A close race

As the nation prepares for the debate between Trump and Harris, the latest poll shows a neck-and-neck race between the two candidates.

According to recent poll data from the New York Times and Siena College, Trump and Harris are almost neck and neck, with Trump at 48% and Harris at 47%.

The poll, conducted September 3-6, shows that Trump continues to enjoy support despite a difficult summer following President Biden's withdrawal from the race.

The poll's results reflect a consistent trend since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in late July and suggest voters are still unsure about Harris's positions: 28 percent say they need to know more about her, compared to just 9 percent for Trump.

Despite some recent successes, Harris faces challenges, particularly among Latino voters and as she tries to prove her ability to effect change. Only 25 percent of voters think Harris represents a significant change from the Biden administration, while 53 percent see Trump as a candidate for change.

This virtual tie underscores how close the race is, especially in the swing states that are expected to determine the outcome of the election. The poll results reflect the national mood, with both candidates jockeying for a small lead.

In addition, in an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted in late August, Harris was 3 percentage points ahead of Trump in the national polling average.

In recent weeks, however, their momentum has slowed somewhat, as the report states: “We appear to be at the end of a honeymoon phase for Harris' campaign.”

According to the poll, Harris has mobilized disillusioned voters: 64 percent of her supporters said they “strongly support her,” compared to just 34 percent who said the same of Biden in July.

Other recent polls show a similarly close race, but with a larger gap or even a larger average:

• Emerson College (September 2-4): Harris 45%, Trump 54%
• Quinnipiac University (September 3-7): Harris 46%, Trump 49%
• Pew Research Center (August 25 to September 1): Harris 49%, Trump 49%

Trump's lead in the polls is largely due to his ability to solidify and mobilize his base through consistent messaging on key issues such as immigration and the economy.

His appeal as a candidate of change contrasts with Harris, who is perceived by some as a continuation of Biden's policies.

In addition, Harris's difficulties in solidifying support, especially among Latino voters, and her struggle to address economic issues have contributed to her faltering success.

Trump's high media presence and his lead on economic issues further strengthen his reputation, while fluctuations in poll results can reflect short-term changes in voter sentiment.

Key issues that determine voter preferences

Polls show that voters’ preferences are shaped by several key issues, most notably the economy.

According to a New York Times poll, 50 percent of voters believe Trump would handle the most important issues better. In comparison, only 43 percent believe they trust Harris on this issue.

Trump also has a lead of 13 points over Harris when it comes to tackling inflation and the economy, and even 9 points on the immigration issue.

However, on issues such as abortion (15 points) and race relations (16 points), Harris is well ahead of Trump.

Voters are more likely to trust her on health care reform, where she has a lead of ten percentage points.

While these issues are important to many, polls suggest that the economy and immigration remain the biggest concerns for the majority of Americans.

Harris is also seen as “too liberal” by 47 percent of likely voters. Trump's distancing from the controversial Project 2025, a conservative political concept, has not completely alleviated concerns about his potential presidency.

This contrast could influence her strategy in the debate: Harris is expected to focus on social issues while trying to reduce Trump's lead on economic issues.

Personal attributes: Harris is a leader in trust and health

Harris continues to outperform Trump on personal qualities, particularly honesty and trustworthiness.

In the ABC News/Ipsos poll, Harris was seen as more honest and trustworthy than Trump by a margin of 43% to 25%.

Harris is also clearly ahead in terms of physical health and mental fitness: 57 percent of respondents believe that Harris is physically healthier than Trump (25 percent).

These advantages mark a shift in the dynamics of the race: The age-related concerns that once plagued Biden are now shifting to Trump.

As the debate approaches, questions about Trump's age and suitability for the office may become more prevalent in the near future, especially since Harris is more than 20 years younger than Trump.

In addition, the New York Times-Siena College poll found that attacks on Trump's character and fitness for office may not significantly influence voters' opinions.

While 54 percent of voters view Trump as a risky choice, this figure is only slightly higher than the 52 percent who view Harris similarly.

The poll also found that 70 percent of voters believe Trump has said something offensive, yet nearly half of his supporters intend to vote for him.

In contrast, 94 percent of Harris' supporters find Trump's comments offensive, and 78 percent say he has recently insulted them.

This clear gap in the perception of Trump's comments could influence voter behavior as the debate approaches.

Expectations for the debate: There is a lot at stake for both candidates

The upcoming debate on September 10 is likely to be a crucial turning point in the election campaign, as much is at stake for both candidates.

Harris heads into the debate with a slight lead in the polls and increased enthusiasm following the Democratic convention. Her approval ratings have improved since she was named the Democratic nominee. The latest average from poll analysis website 538 shows her at 46%, just below her disapproval rating.

In comparison, Trump is still almost 10 percentage points below average in terms of popularity: 53 percent have a negative opinion of him.

Despite Harris' positive development, expectations for her performance in the debate are high. The ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 43 percent of respondents expect Harris to win the debate, while 37 percent expect Trump to emerge victorious.

This expectation represents a reversal from previous debates, where Biden was expected to perform poorly.

However, the outcome of the debate could either solidify Harris' lead or shift the lead back to Trump.

There is a lot at stake for both candidates in the debate: Harris wants to maintain her momentum and Trump is trying to regain his footing.

Details of the debate

The debate will be moderated by David Muir and Linsey Davis of ABC News and is scheduled to air at 9 p.m. Eastern Time (1 a.m. GMT) on Tuesday.

This debate, which will be the only one between Harris and Trump, will have new rules: the candidates' microphones will be muted when they are not speaking and there will be no audience present.

The format includes two commercial breaks, with each candidate being given a specific time limit for answers and counterarguments.

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