What will happen next for Venezuela and its opposition after Edmundo Gonzalez fled?

Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez has fled to Spain and is seeking political asylum in the face of unrest in his country following a disputed presidential election.

The opposition presidential candidate arrived with his wife at the Torrejón de Ardoz military base in the Spanish capital Madrid on Sunday, according to a statement from the Spanish Foreign Ministry.

Gonzalez, who has accused President Nicolás Maduro of electoral fraud, fled the country after an arrest warrant was issued for him last week amid an intensified government crackdown on the opposition.

Here's what's happening in Venezuela now and what's coming next:

What happened in Venezuela?

The National Electoral Council said Maduro won re-election with 51 percent of the vote – his third victory since taking office in 2013 after the death of his mentor and charismatic president Hugo Chávez. The United Socialist Party has been in power for 25 years.

The opposition, however, claimed that the results of the July 28 election were rigged. It said its volunteers had received 73 percent of the ballots issued by the electronic voting machines and that these showed that Gonzalez was the true winner of the election. Maduro had won 30 percent of the vote, it said.

There were protests demanding the publication of the election results from each polling station.

Instead, Maduro's government cracked down on opposition protesters and leaders, forcing many to seek refuge in foreign embassies. At least 24 people have been killed and about 2,400 people arrested in connection with the protests, according to Human Rights Watch.

Venezuelan security forces are currently surrounding the Argentine embassy in Caracas while six opposition leaders are seeking asylum there.

Gonzalez hid for a month, seeking refuge in the Dutch embassy in the Venezuelan capital and then in the Spanish embassy.

Who is Edmundo Gonzalez?

Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, 75, a retired diplomat, came into the political spotlight when the opposition Unity Platform chose him to challenge Maduro after the main opposition candidate, Maria Corina Machado, was disqualified from running. He does not belong to any party.

Gonzalez held diplomatic positions in El Salvador, the United States and Belgium before being appointed Venezuelan ambassador to Algeria in 1991.

Why did Gonzalez apply for asylum in Spain?

Concerned for his safety, Gonzalez left for Spain after being charged with incitement to riot and an arrest warrant was issued against him.

“His life was in danger and the increasing threats, summons, arrest warrants and even attempts at blackmail and coercion to which he was subjected show that the regime knows no scruples and no limits in its obsession to silence and subjugate him,” Machado wrote in an X-post on Sunday.

Gonzalez himself repeated this in an audio recording released by the opposition on Sunday, in which he said: “My departure from Caracas was accompanied by phases of pressure, coercion and threats to prohibit me from leaving the country.”

Could he lead in exile?

It seems that González will remain a leader of the opposition in exile, at least for the time being.

“Edmundo will fight from outside alongside our diaspora and I will continue to do so here alongside you,” Machado wrote in her Sunday X-Post.

Venezuelan political scientist Carlos Pina told Al Jazeera that González could also be “a megaphone for the opposition's demands abroad, so I believe the fight can continue.”

What will happen to the opposition in Venezuela?

“With the exile of González, a new stage begins in the opposition's post-election struggle. That is clear,” said Pina.

González's departure “could be costly from a political point of view for the opposition in that its most important leader, to put it bluntly, is abandoning ship,” Pina said.

It is crucial that Machado stays in Venezuela, he added, because although Machado and González have the support of a large part of the Venezuelan population, there is no guarantee that this support will last if the opposition does not actively continue its election campaign.

Pina said the opposition must “try to redefine its strategies, maintain mobilization, sustain the political struggle and put pressure on the government to present the election results.”

The unity platform consists of ten parties ranging from the centre-left to the centre-right.

What does the government say?

The Venezuelan government said it allowed Gonzalez to leave the country to create “political peace” in the country. It did not provide any further information about why Gonzalez was allowed to leave.

Attorney General Tarek William Saab claimed on Sunday that Gonzalez's departure from Venezuela was the result of pressure from Machado's party.

Saab told CNN that Gonzalez was “forced to make decisions” by the opposition coalition. “There is an absolute fracture in this extremist opposition,” he said.

Is Maduro becoming increasingly isolated in the region?

Support for Maduro in South America appears to have waned, Vanessa Neumann, a former Venezuelan ambassador to the United Kingdom, told Al Jazeera.

“It is very interesting that the Spanish President [Gonzalez] on a plane and granted him asylum,” she said, pointing out that Spain has a left-wing government.

Neumann added that Maduro also had a falling out with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, “one of his best friends,” after Venezuela on Saturday stripped Brazil of the authority to run and represent the Argentine embassy. Earlier, Maduro expelled Argentine diplomatic staff from Venezuela after the Argentine government questioned the election results.

“If you are legitimately elected, it is not a good image to stand next to a repressive dictator who imprisons the opposition and does not publish the election results. I think that is starting to divide the left. [in the region]”, said Neumann.

Pina agreed, saying, “I think it's very difficult at the moment to talk about the Latin American left as if it were a unified entity.”

The left-wing governments of Chile, Brazil and Colombia called on Maduro to publish the election results. Cuba and Nicaragua, on the other hand, staunch opponents of the United States in the region, threw their full support behind Maduro.

Politicians from Cuba, Honduras and Bolivia congratulated Maduro on social media after the election. “The people have spoken and the revolution has won,” wrote Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel on X.

On August 26, Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega offered to send “Sandinista fighters” to support Maduro if he tried to mobilize armed “counterrevolutionary” forces.

Venezuela also received strong support from China and Russia. Both Moscow and Beijing congratulated Maduro on his election victory.

What are the reactions to Gonzalez's departure from Venezuela?

The United States and the European Union do not recognize Maduro's victory, but believe that Gonzalez is the real winner.

• EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell A statement said: “In a democracy, no political leader should be forced to seek asylum in another country.”
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken In an X-post, Gonzalez described it as the last hope for democracy. “We must not allow Maduro and his representatives to cling to power by force.”
• The Organization of American Statesa regional organization allied with the United States, said on Sunday that Gonzalez had been forced into exile.
• Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares According to Spanish media, he told González that he was happy about the arrival of the Venezuelan opposition leader and that he had “reaffirmed our government's commitment to the political rights of all Venezuelans.”