Historian who correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections makes his choice for 2024

WASHINGTON – Allan Lichtman, the historian who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, has offered his guess as to who will reclaim the White House this year.

Spoiler alert: It’s Vice President Kamala Harris.

In a video first reported by the New York Times, Lichtman said he based his prediction on thirteen key factors, or “big-picture true-false questions that provide insight into the party's strength and ability to hold the White House.”

Who is Allan Lichtman?

Before receiving the title of Distinguished Professor from American University in Washington, DC, Lichtman earned his doctorate from Harvard with a focus on modern American history and quantitative methods.

In addition to lecturing in the United States and around the world, Lichtman is the author of 13 books and hundreds of academic articles, and has served as an expert witness in civil and election law cases.

He regularly publishes political commentaries and is best known for his election forecasts.

Allan Lichtman: What are the 13 keys to a successful election campaign?

Key factors include whether:

◾ The White House party won seats in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections.

◾ The incumbent president is running for re-election.

◾ The White House party avoids a primary campaign.

◾ There is a third-party challenger.

◾ The short-term economic situation is strong.

◾ Long-term economic growth was as good as in the last two terms.

◾ The party in the White House has made major changes in national politics.

◾ During his term in office there is persistent social unrest.

◾ The White House is free of scandals, the incumbent party is charismatic.

◾ The challenger is not charismatic.

◾ The incumbent is charismatic.

◾ The party in the White House has made a big mistake in foreign policy.

◾ The party in the White House has foreign policy successes.

Eight of the keys speak for Harris, while three speak for Trump.

“Foreign policy is delicate, and these keys could flip,” he said in the video. “The Biden administration is deeply involved in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian catastrophe with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped, that would mean there would only be five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to retake the White House.”

This means Harris will win the White House, he said. “At least that's my prediction for this race, but the outcome depends on you, so go vote.”

Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of nearly every election over the past half century, with the exception of the 2000 election, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

Contributors: Karissa Waddick

This article originally appeared in the Palm Beach Post: Allan Lichtman's 2024 election prediction: Trump or Harris for president