What to expect from the New Hampshire primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — New Hampshire is one of the smallest states in the U.S., but Tuesday's primaries are so exciting that they could fill a much larger state.

The New England state is fiercely independent, making it difficult to categorize it as red or blue. While it has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in each of the last five elections, it has also sent moderate Republican Chris Sununu to the governorship four times. Its four-member congressional delegation has been all Democrats since 2017, but Republicans currently hold slim majorities in both houses of the state legislature.

Tuesday's primary will set the stage for a telling general election. With the retirements of Sununu and longtime Rep. Ann Kuster, there are open races for governor and the state's 2nd Congressional District. Both races feature contested primaries between Republicans and Democrats. And in addition to these key executive and legislative races, every seat in the nation's largest legislature will be up for election in 2024.

The Republican primary for governor is pitting Kelly Ayotte, a former U.S. senator who has promised to stay on the “Sununu trail,” against Chuck Morse, the former state Senate president who has described himself as “the only New Hampshire gubernatorial candidate who has endorsed Donald Trump.” Ayotte is the leading fundraiser in the race, having raised over $7 million so far.

On the Democratic side, Joyce Craig, the former mayor of Manchester, is running against Cinde Warmington, the only Democrat on the New Hampshire Executive Council (a five-member body that approves heads of state agencies, judges and state contracts), and businessman Jon Kiper. Craig is the second-biggest fundraiser among gubernatorial candidates from either party, bettered only by Ayotte.

The 2nd Congressional District, which spans the eastern side of the state and is the bluer of the state's two districts, has a Republican field of more than a dozen candidates. The leading fundraiser is Vikram Mansharamani, an economist and author, while 2022 candidate Lily Tang Williams trails by about $100,000.

But the Democratic primary, pitting policymakers Maggie Goodlander and Colin Van Ostern against each other, has emerged as the more costly – and tougher – race.

Kuster has campaigned for Van Ostern, a former aide of hers. In a commercial she shot for him, she criticized Goodlander for not living in the district for decades. Goodlander, who worked for the late Senator John McCain and in the Justice Department, was born and raised in the district but owns property in the state's other congressional district. Van Ostern, who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2016, is pitching himself as a candidate with more grassroots support.

Here's a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Primary school day

The New Hampshire primary is Tuesday, with the last polls closing at 8 p.m. ET, although polls in most parts of the state close as early as 7 p.m. ET. In two cities, polls close as early as 7:30 p.m. ET.

What is on the ballot

The Associated Press will report voting results and announce the winners of the contested primaries for governor, U.S. House of Representatives, Senate, House of Representatives and Executive Council.

Who can vote

Voters registered with a political party may only vote in their own party's primary. In other words, Democrats may not vote in Republican primaries and vice versa. Independent or undeclared voters may vote in all primaries.

Decision notes

New England states report votes at the township level, not the county level. Townships are smaller subdivisions, and many towns report all or nearly all of their votes at once. The Associated Press will analyze these early results and compare them with previous election results to see if they provide a clear indication of the winner.

In New Hampshire, the vast majority of votes are counted on election night. No statewide election results are counted before the last polls close at 8 p.m. Historically, fewer than 1 in 10 votes are cast in New Hampshire before Election Day because the state requires a reason for mail-in ballots.

The largest townships in the state are Manchester, Nashua, Rochester, Concord, Derry and Salem. New Hampshire has multi-member districts, with the number of representatives varying depending on the size of the town, so these townships have a larger number of state representatives.

Of these, Nashua, Concord and Salem are in the 2nd district. Goodlander was born and raised in Nashua, while Van Ostern lives in Concord.

The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it determines that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates could close the gap. If a race has not yet been called, the AP will continue to report on any major developments, such as concessions or declarations of victory by the candidates. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and will explain why.

There are no automatic recounts in New Hampshire's state primaries, but a candidate can request and pay for a recount if the vote difference is 10 votes or less than 1.5% of the total votes cast. The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it determines the margin is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

What about voter turnout and early voting?

As of June 28, there were approximately 891,000 registered voters in New Hampshire, of which 29% were Democrats, 34% were Republicans, and 37% were independent or had no political affiliation.

In 2022, voter turnout in the state Democratic primary was 11% of registered voters and in the state Republican primary was 17%. About 8% of Democratic primary voters and 4% of Republican primary voters cast their ballots before Primary Day.

How long does the vote count usually take?

In the 2022 primary, the AP first reported results at 7:26 p.m. ET, 26 minutes after the first polls closed. Election night counting ended at 3:11 a.m. ET, after about 88% of the total votes had been counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there are 56 days left until the parliamentary elections in November.

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