Texas vs. Michigan score prediction by an expert football model

The top game on the college football week 2 schedule takes place on Saturday: The defending national champion and No. 10 seed Michigan Wolverines host the No. 3 seed Texas Longhorns at the Big House in the game of week 2 of college football.

The battle for the quarterback spot appears to be clearly in the Longhorns' favor. Quinn Ewers scored three touchdowns and rushed for 260 yards, and sophomore Arch Manning scored once through the air and once on the ground as Texas beat Colorado State 52-0 last week.

Davis Warren rushed for 118 yards with a touchdown and an interception for the Wolverines in a hard-fought opener against Fresno State, averaging 4.7 yards per pass.

But it was Michigan's defense that took the win with the return of key players, as cornerback Will Johnson secured the victory in Week 1 with an 86-yard pick-six.

What to expect in this matchup? Let's take a look at the SP+ prediction model to preview how Michigan and Texas compare in this Week 2 game.

According to the simulations, the Longhorns will currently pass this first away game with flying colors.

SP+ predicts that Texas will likely defeat Michigan 28-21 and win the game by a projected 6.5 point margin.

The model gives the Longhorns a 66 percent chance of a clear victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency in college football” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

According to odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Texas is the favorite by 7.5 points against Michigan, with the total point total for the game set at 42.5.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Texas at -310 and for Michigan at +245.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should consider the following…

Other analysis models also favor the SEC challengers in the battle for victory over the Wolverines.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select the winners.

Texas is predicted to win in 74.1 percent of computer simulations, while Michigan emerged victorious in the remaining 25.9 percent of simulations.

The computers predict that with both teams currently lined up on the same field, Texas will be 11.9 points better than Michigan, which is enough to reach that limit.

According to computer calculations, Michigan will win 8.3 games this season and is ranked fourth among Big Ten teams with a 7.3 percent chance of winning the conference championship.

According to the index, Texas is expected to win 10.5 games this year, making it the second-best favorite to win the SEC championship with a 27 percent probability.

When: Saturday, September 7
Time: 12pm ET, 11am CT
TV: Fox Network

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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