Would Florida fire coach Billy Napier in the first month of the season?

GAINESVILLE, Florida. – It should come as no surprise if Florida fires coach Billy Napier in the first month of the season.

There are numerous current precedents.

Five coaches have been fired in the first five weeks of the 2022 season: Scott Frost at Nebraska, Herm Edwards at Arizona State, Geoff Collins at Georgia Tech, Paul Chryst at Wisconsin and Karl Dorrell at Colorado. (Clay Helton was fired after two games at USC in 2021.)

Although every situation was different, there was one thing in common: the coaches had reached the point of no return. Supporters threatened to stop their financial contributions. Fans vowed not to come to the games anymore. Those in charge had no choice but to turn the tide.

It seems Napier is close, if not already there, and Saturday night's home game against lower-ranked Samford (0-1) could be a clear sign of how frustrated Florida fans have become watching the former Louisiana-Lafayette coach fail.

Napier has an 11-15 record in two-plus seasons with the Gators, including a six-game losing streak and 11 losses in his last 14 games against power conference opponents. His 41-17 loss to then-No. 19 Miami at the Swamp last week in the season opener showed that little has changed in three seasons.

The Gators were penalized twice for roughing the passer in the first half, and both penalties resulted in touchdowns. Napier had to take a timeout in the second quarter after a media timeout. And he scored on two third-and-5 plays (one of which was technically a pass behind the line of scrimmage).

Florida didn't manage 20 yards on a single pass play, managed just one of nine third down attempts and totaled 261 yards – 71 of which came on Montrell Johnson's TD run late in the first half. Florida's rebuilt defense was held to 529 yards, the sixth time an opponent has rushed for over 500 yards during Napier's tenure.

“We can flip the script and keep going,” Napier said Wednesday night. “It's so important that whether you succeed or fail, it doesn't affect your attitude or approach. We're battling human nature on both ends of the spectrum. Sometimes you win and you're over the moon and think you're better than you are, and sometimes you have failures and you get beat up.”

“Part of the leadership’s job is to help our young people navigate a situation that is making too much noise.”

The mood in Gainesville is deafening right now, even though Florida would owe Napier more than $25 million if it fires him during or after this season.

Doubts about Napier's job security won't go away anytime soon, especially given the toughest schedule in school history, and not even a win against seemingly inferior Samford would do much to calm the restless fan base.

“It is what it is. When you play for the New York Giants and you get beat by a couple of points and you look sloppy, you get criticized for it,” Napier said. “Look, we've got a lot of football left to play and hopefully there will be a time when, if we can turn things around, we'll be competing against the other side of the spectrum.”

Jack Crowe has the dubious distinction of being the only coach in recent memory to be fired after Week 1. Arkansas athletic director Frank Broyles fired Crowe one day after a 10-3 home loss to The Citadel in 1992. Crowe was just beginning his third season and the Razorbacks had just been promoted to the Southeastern Conference.

At the time, it seemed hasty. But recently, such quick triggers have become more common.

Frost was fired three games into his fifth season. Edwards was fired three games into his fifth year. Collins was fired four games into his fourth year. Chryst was gone five games into his eighth year. Dorrell was fired after an 0-5 start in his third season. Rutgers let Chris Ash go four games into his fourth season in 2019.

Most of them did not survive September and, like Napier, began the season on the proverbial hot seat.

It would be uncharacteristic of Florida to do the same. After all, the last four coaches fired in Gainesville – Ron Zook, Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen – remained in office at least until the end of October.

But college football has changed dramatically since Mullen's firing in 2021. Promoters are more openly involved than ever before, and teams at major programs have to make their monthly payroll payments. And potential financial consequences can be just as important to a program's health as wins and losses.

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