Who is Allan Lichtman? 'Election Nostradamus' who correctly predicted 9 out of 10 election results says Kamala Harris will win the White House

Allan Lichtman, the respected American political historian known for his accurate predictions of presidential elections, has made a bold prediction for the upcoming election. Lichtman, known as the “Election Nostradamus,” confidently proclaimed that Kamala Harris will emerge as the winner of the 2024 presidential election.

In a video published by the New York Times, Lichtman declared, “Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.” He stressed the importance of voting, urging, “The outcome is in your hands, so go vote.”

A professor at American University in Washington, DC since 1973, Lichtman has earned a reputation for accurately predicting the results of U.S. presidential elections. Over the past 40 years, he has successfully predicted the winner in nine out of 10 elections. His only notable failures were the 2000 election, when George W. Bush narrowly defeated Al Gore, and the 2016 election, when he incorrectly predicted that Donald Trump would win a majority of the vote. Aside from these exceptions, Lichtman's predictions have been largely reliable.

Lichtman's forecasting method, known as “The Keys to the White House,” was developed in 1981 with Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. This system evaluates 13 key factors related to the state of the nation and the incumbent party during an election year. These factors include the standing of the president's party in Congress, the health of the economy, any scandals or social unrest, and the charisma of the candidates. Each factor is rated as “true” or “false” in predicting the election outcome.

According to Lichtman, if the incumbent administration achieves six or more “true” ratings, it is likely to win. Conversely, fewer “true” ratings indicate that the challenger has a better chance of winning. In his recent video, Lichtman reported that eight of the 13 key factors currently point to a “true” outcome for Harris, suggesting a high probability of a Democratic victory in November.

However, Lichtman also acknowledged that there could be changes in the race. He pointed out that three key factors are currently “wrong” and two more factors are in danger of becoming “wrong” as well. Even if those additional factors were to change, Lichtman believes that five negative key factors would not be enough to ensure Trump a victory.

Commenting on the impact of foreign policy, Lichtman said, “Foreign policy is a tricky business, and those keys could shift.” He highlighted the Biden administration's involvement in the Gaza conflict as a significant issue that could influence the election. Despite possible changes, Lichtman believes that even if the foreign policy keys were to turn negative, Trump would not have a sufficient advantage to win.

In an interview with Fox 5 Washington, Lichtman explained the impact of Joe Biden's decision to withdraw after a challenging debate performance against Trump. He claimed that uniting Democrats around Harris was a critical turning point. Lichtman also mentioned Harris' positive influence on key factors, including weakening Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s campaign and reducing major protests.

Recent national polls support Lichtman's prediction, showing Harris ahead of Trump by four percentage points. However, in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia, the candidates are neck and neck. Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump has the edge in Arizona.

As the election approaches, Lichtman's prediction remains a topic of considerable interest and debate, as it underscores the ongoing dynamics and uncertainty in the 2024 presidential campaign.