Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State score prediction by an expert football model

This weekend brings us an interesting matchup between the SEC and the Big 12, as the 16th-seeded Oklahoma State Cowboys host the Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday in the second week of college football.

Arkansas defeated Pine Bluff 70-0 in the opening game, with quarterback Taylen Green running for two touchdowns and throwing for two more, tailback Ja'Quinden Jackson running for 100 yards and scoring two more, and the Hogs' backfield running for a total of 8 touchdowns.

Reigning college football rushing champion Ollie Gordon ran for three touchdowns and quarterback Alan Bowman threw two more as the Cowboys defeated South Dakota State by a narrow margin of 44-20.

Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman is coming off four wins last season and remains in the proverbial hot seat, and wins like these are crucial to his spot on the team.

Oklahoma State is on the short list of teams competing for the newly expanded Big 12 title and, with it, the College Football Playoffs.

What can we expect from this matchup? Let's turn to the SP+ prediction model for an early preview of Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State on Saturday.

According to simulations, the Cowboys will take on their SEC challengers at home this week.

SP+ predicts Oklahoma State to defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 34 to 27, winning the game by a projected margin of 7.4 points.

The model gives the Cowboys a 68 percent chance of a clear victory over the Razorbacks.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of efficiency in college football” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

Oklahoma State is the favorite by 7.5 points against Arkansas, according to odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, where the total score for the game has been set at 62.5.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Oklahoma State at -310 and for Arkansas at +245.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should consider the following…

Other analysis models also assume that the Cowboys will win the home game.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to select the winners.

The model projects Oklahoma State to win the game in 56 percent of simulations, while Arkansas will emerge as the projected winner in the remaining 44 percent of simulations.

However, the computers expect a very close victory for the Cowboys, who are expected to be only 0.2 points better than the Razorbacks on the same field, which is not enough to cross the finish line.

According to computer calculations, Arkansas is expected to win six games this season and has a 59.9 percent chance of qualifying for a bowl berth and a 4.8 percent chance of making the playoffs.

According to the index, Oklahoma State will win 7.9 games this fall and has a 9.8 percent chance of winning the conference title, ranking sixth among Big 12 teams.

When: Saturday, September 7
Time: 11am Central
TV: ABC Network

The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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