Phillies vs. Blue Jays: Predictions, Tips, Odds – 9-4

The Toronto Blue Jays may be out of the playoff race, but there's no denying that they've been a lot more fun to watch lately, even if that doesn't result in wins.

That was the case when the Jays lost to the Philadelphia Phillies in a 10-9 slugfest last night, but today's Phillies vs. Blue Jays predictions predict a much different pace with Bowden Francis on the mound in top form.

I explain everything in my MLB tips below.

Phillies vs. Blue Jays prediction

My best bet
The first five under 4.5 (-143 at PROLINE+)

My analysis
Bowden Francis' turnaround was nothing short of incredible. The 28-year-old right-hander made the Toronto Blue Jays roster after Spring Training to rave reviews, but those good feelings were short-lived as he ran into trouble early in the season, leading to a demotion to the minor leagues. When he was called back into the team, he was a long reliever.

After trading away some players at the trade deadline, Francis returned to the rotation in late July and was outstanding in August. Francis posted a 1.06 ERA while limiting opponents to a .081 batting average and striking out 10.3 batters per nine innings in five starts, earning AL Pitcher of the Month honors.

In his last 29 innings, he has allowed just two earned runs on six hits. Like I said, pretty incredible stuff.

Suffice it to say, he can be effective even against a lineup as dangerous as the Philadelphia Phillies. Plus, Philly has been just a mediocre team when facing right-handed pitchers, ranking 12th in OPS and 13th in wRC+ this season.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are countering with All-Star Cristopher Sanchez. The left-hander has been solid for most of the season, posting an expected ERA of 3.63. With his sinker-changeup combination, he's the type of pitcher who can cause problems for a young Blue Jays lineup.

There's a reason Toronto ranks 25th in OPS and 24th in wRC+ when facing lefties this season. Pitching will be the deciding factor early in this game, but as we saw yesterday, leads aren't safe in the Blue Jays' bullpen, so stay under for the five-inning total.

Prop for Blue Jays star player

My best bet
Bowden Francis over 5.5 strikeouts (+110 at PROLINE+)

My analysis
Let's stick with Bowden Francis as today's star player, because that's the guy the Blue Jays have been raving about this spring. While it will be difficult to maintain this pace, the right-hander is in good shape right now, so we're betting on him to be successful.

As mentioned, he has struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings over that five-start span. That's a 33% strikeout rate and would put him in the top 10 among MLB pitchers. As a result, he has struck out more than 7 batters in four of his last five starts.

The Phillies rank in the middle of the pack when it comes to strikeouts against right-handers, allowing 21.9% of strikeouts, although that number has increased to 23.1% over the last two weeks.

Francis has faced an average of just over 23 batters in his last five starts. Even if he strikes out about 25% of batters today, he should get six strikeouts. And with the way he's pitching, I'll put my money on him, especially with a plus-win.

Odds for Phillies vs. Blue Jays

Phillies vs Blue Jays live odds

Phillies vs. Blue Jays Opening Odds

• Money line: Philadelphia -125 | Toronto +105
• Execute line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+130) | Toronto +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Phillies vs. Blue Jays Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• The Blue Jays entered this interleague duel as slight underdogs at +105 odds, and early bettors have backed the Phillies, with Toronto now in the +110 range.
• This could be a good place for the Phillies. Philly is the superior team with an All-Star on the mound, and although Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis has been outstanding, the Phillies have a very strong lineup. He will have to hand the ball over to the uninspiring Toronto bullpen at some point.
• The total number was exactly 8 and remained at that level late Wednesday morning.
• While I like the first five unders, I wouldn't be surprised if the game was still over. Toronto's bullpen has the third-worst ERA in baseball, and we just saw it blow another lead yesterday.

Trend Phillies vs. Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have gone over the total in 26 of their last 37 home games, returning +14.10 units and a 35% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Blue Jays here.

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