The best tips of the day for the quarter-finals on Wednesday

Tennis betting tips: US Open matches

1 point Karolina Muchova beats Beatriz Haddad Maia 2-0 at 6/5 (bet365)

1 point Iga Swiatek beats Jessica Pegula 2:0 at 4/5 (bet365, William Hill, 888sport)

1 point Jannik Sinner serves the most aces against Daniil Medvedev at 11/8 (bet365)

Sky Bet Odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sports Betting

Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Karolina Muchova (1700 BST)

There are few players better to watch than Muchova when she is fit and on top form, and that has been the case so far at the US Open.

She won every match in straight sets and was particularly impressive when she defeated Jasmine Paolini in the final round.

The variety of her shots and her skill on the court can astound even the best players and she appears to be in the form that took her to the final of the French Open last year.

The Czech has only lost serve twice in her last three matches in New York and will now face a player who has beaten her three times in three previous encounters, dropping just one set.

Haddad Maia deserves respect and fought hard to beat Caroline Wozniacki, but I wonder if the two hours and 41 minutes she spent on court in the heat of the day will play a role here.

She was one of the few top players who competed the week before this tournament and reached the final in Cleveland, so she's played a lot of tennis in the last two weeks.

I believe Muchova will win and will help her achieve this in two sets.

CLICK HERE to back Muchova's 2-0 win at Sky Bet.

Jack Draper vs Alex de Minaur (to follow)

I burned my fingers in the last few rounds when I was the favorite against Draper and, to be honest, he made me look pretty stupid.

The Brit is currently playing great tennis, hitting the ball very well and has a convincing serve – in four rounds he has only lost one game so far.

I suspect that De Minaur will struggle with the power of his opponents, even though he has one of the best defenses on tour and can use his speed on the court very effectively.

With service winners and the all-important serve-plus-one shot, Draper can definitely win this match.

However, I still have a nagging concern that he will need to step up when he faces stronger opponents, and De Minaur is definitely one of them. Draper hasn't played a seeded opponent yet – Carlos Alcaraz got him knocked out – and now he's up against a top-10 player who has beaten him three out of three.

The Australian also has the problem of never having played against a seeded opponent – which would potentially represent a big step up in quality – and he has dropped a set in three of his four rounds so far.

He had to take quite a long break after Wimbledon and I wonder if that could be a factor given the stronger class of players.

I think there are a lot of what ifs here, so I'm happy to sit it out from a betting perspective.

Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula (0000 BST)

Swiatek has not made any major mistakes so far and has won her four games in two sets.

She didn't have a single break point in her last three matches, which is very good for this competition. In comparison, Pegula had 16 break points in her corresponding matches and lost six of them.

Pegula has been the player in top form leading up to this event, reaching back-to-back finals in Toronto and Cincinnati. She is also undefeated in Flushing Meadows, but now she faces the age-old problem of a Grand Slam quarterfinal.

She has already reached this stage six times and lost six times.

Facing the world number one is also far from ideal – she's trailing 3-6 overall. At least those three wins (all on hard court) will give her some confidence, but the last time they met, Swiatek absolutely brutalized her with a 6-1, 6-0 win in the title match at the WTA Finals in November.

Pegula had played well before this match, but there might still be scars left.

After everything that has happened so far, I wonder if Pegula really believes she can win.

Given Swiatek's strong serve and her crisp shots from the baseline, I expect her to win in straight sets and I'm ready to put my money where my mouth is.

CLICK HERE to bet on a 2-0 Swiatek win at Sky Bet

Jannik Sinner against Daniil Medvedev (to follow)

The tournament favorite will face the 2021 champion under the floodlights of Arthur Ashe Stadium on Wednesday evening, and that promises a lot.

Both men looked rock solid when they reached this stage – after losing a set each in their first matches, the pair have since won comfortably in straight sets.

I would give Medvedev a small star in terms of his level as an opponent. He has not yet played against a top 30 player in New York, and his last victory of this kind was at Wimbledon – against a certain Mr. Sinner.

For all the talk about his specialization on hard courts, the fact is that Medvedev has only beaten one top-10 player on this surface since losing to Sinner (after a two-set lead) in the Australian Open final in January, and that was Holger Rune, who struggled throughout 2024.

In my opinion, he is facing a big jump to a higher class here, and although Medvedev, at his best, is capable of closing that gap, it seems like a lot to ask.

He suffered a heavy defeat in their last meeting on hard court, winning 6-1 and 6-2 in Miami, but his unexpected five-set victory at Wimbledon may have given him some confidence on a day when Sinner was not at his best physically.

The Italian has struggled with a number of injury problems this season, but he didn't seem to be bothered by it in New York and is probably worth his 2/5 odds.

Medvedev could make it exciting – I expected over 37.5 games at 5/6 and a Sinner win with both players winning a set at 6/4. Four of the last five encounters have all ended in a deciding set.

A match tiebreak at 4/5 also looks tempting. That has happened in four of her last six matches and Sinner played two in the last round, against Tommy Paul.

However, this seems like a good time to get into the top markets that have served this column well over the years.

Sinner is the underdog to serve the most at 11/8, although he has won that bet in their three meetings this season – 17-15 (Wimbledon), 7-3 (Miami) and 14-11 (Australian Open). The previous match in the series ended in a 10-10 draw.

As long-time readers know, I attach great importance to the direct comparison. But even if you look at the statistics of this tournament, you will see that Sinner has a marginal advantage: he has served 0.71 aces per game so far, Medvedev 0.7.

11/8 is simply too big here.

Posted at 23:00 BST on 03/09/24

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