Top 3 MLB Bets and Player Props for Tuesday, 09/03/24

If you're looking for a wide variety of betting options, baseball is for you.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet on the long, grueling MLB schedule on a daily basis. The outlook can vary greatly based on the starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced statistics can tell us whether an individual pitcher, bullpen or team is in for a positive – or negative – regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are the most attractive today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats are from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted. Please check here for the most up-to-date projections.

Today's best MLB bets and player props

Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. records 2+ bases (-120)

Over the past few months, not many hitters have seen the baseball better than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays. Over the past 30 days, Guerrero has the sixth-best wOBA (.452), fourth-best wRC+ (201), and fifth-lowest strikeout rate (8.0%) against right-handed pitchers, and he'll be facing a below-average right-hander as Tyler Phillips is expected to start for the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday.

In six starts and one relief appearance this season, Phillips has a 5.54 xERA, .287 xBA, and 13.2% barrel rate allowed. Phillips also produces reverse splits on the mound, allowing a .408 wOBA, 1.56 WHIP, and 3.00 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, compared to a .232 wOBA, 0.89 WHIP, and 0.50 HR/9 to left-handed hitters.

Guerrero boasts a wOBA of .344 or better against Phillips' three primary pitches (sinker, sweeper and four-seam fastball) against right-handers this year. Guerrero is also in fantastic form, as the hard-hitting first baseman has reached two or more bases in six of his last eight games.

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers over 4.5 total runs (+104)

Steven Matz is expected to return to the St. Louis Cardinals' rotation on Tuesday, making his first start since April 30. In his first six starts earlier this season, Matz posted an abysmal 6.26 xERA, .317 xBA and 13.4% strikeout rate while allowing more than four earned runs in his last three appearances.

The timing of his return is less than ideal for Matz, as the veteran left-hander will be playing on the road against the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers. Over the last month, the Brewers have had the ninth-best wOBA (.322) and 10th-best wRC+ (106) against left-handed pitchers.

Additionally, Milwaukee has been scoring runs with ease lately, scoring five or more runs in six of their last seven games. Even with Matz making brief starts or appearances after returning from the injured list, St. Louis' bullpen has the eighth-worst xFIP (4.23) and fifth-lowest strikeout rate (21.3%) over the last 30 days.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels

Freddie Freeman scores an RBI (+115)

Another left-hander expected to return to the mound after an extended absence is Reid Detmers of the Los Angeles Angels. After allowing more than three earned runs in eight consecutive starts (with a 9.7% walk rate and 9.0% barrel rate), Detmers was demoted to Triple-A in early June.

Detmers is welcomed to the major leagues with the task of slowing down the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have the third-best wOBA (.362), fourth-best wRC+ (135), and second-best ISO (.225) over the last 14 days, and Freddie Freeman is a big reason why.

Freeman has shined at the plate in recent games, hitting two or more bases in three of his last four games, with four home runs, ten RBIs and four runs batted in during that span. Although Freeman doesn't have elite numbers against left-handed hitters this season, the veteran first baseman has an ISO of .217 or better and a wOBA of .351 or better against two of Detmer's three primary pitches (four-seam fastball and curveball) against left-handed batters.

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The author named above is an employee of FanDuel and is not authorized to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. Advice provided by the author does not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. Following the author's advice does not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.