safe enough for deportations? – DW – 03.09.2024

Should Syrian criminals be sent off in their home country, yes or no? The debate on this has flared up again in Germany following the suspected jihadist knife attack by a man of Syrian origin in the western German city of Solingen and the triumph of the partly right-wing extremist “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) in the elections in the eastern German states of Saxony and Thuringia – especially, but not only, with regard to asylum seekers who have committed crimes. Media reports about refugees who are supposedly vacationing in their homeland have also fueled the discussion. But what is the situation in Syria itself?

Syria is currently divided into four different areas of rule. Most of the country – around 60 percent – is controlled by the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. A small corner in the northwest is under the rule of the radical Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. To the north of this, Turkey controls two corners that border directly on its territory. The northeast, however, is ruled by Kurdish forces.

None of these four regions offers security, stresses political scientist André Bank from German Institute for Global and Regional Studies (GIGA), together with Middle East expert Ronja Herrschner, author of a recently published studyon the security situation in Syria. “In my view, deportations are currently prohibited in all four regions of the country,” Bank told DW.

“One of the most repressive regimes in the world”

The study reports that around 9.6 million people live in the part of the country controlled by Assad. The Assad regime, which the study describes as “one of the most repressive regimes in the world”, continues to practice forced disappearances, military trials and torture on a large scale. The regime also refuses to provide information about the fate of more than 125,000 prisoners.

There are known cases of Syrians deported from Lebanon who disappeared without a trace after crossing the border into Syria, says Middle East expert and political consultant Carsten Wieland in an interview with DW. “They were probably arrested by one of the secret services and possibly tortured or even killed. A whole series of such missing persons cases have been documented.”

The fact that many refugees prefer to live in camps in Lebanon or Jordan under certain conditions rather than return home is also an indication of what they expect if they return: “They are not worried that they will not be able to return to a regular life in Syria. They fear for their lives and limbs,” says Wieland.

Radical Islamists and Russian air strikes

The situation in Idlib in northwest Syria is hardly any better. Around three million people live in the region controlled by the radical Islamist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham – 1.7 million of them internally displaced persons. The livelihood of almost all residents quickly becomes completely dependent on external aid from the UN. Over 80 percent of people do not have adequate access to drinking water, sanitation facilities and waste treatment, according to the study written by Bank and Herrschner.

In addition, the southern and eastern parts of the region are repeatedly the target of Russian air strikes. Moscow has long supported the Assad regime. These attacks have increased since the beginning of the Gaza war. As a result, around 160,000 people were displaced within the northwest between October and December 2023 alone, often for the second or third time, according to the study.

Added to this is the authoritarian rule of the jihadists themselves, who emerged from the Al Qaeda milieu, says Syria expert Carsten Wieland. The radical Islamists have moderated their ideology somewhat. “But of course they are still concerned with control – especially of women, whose rights are severely restricted.” Those who think differently are also at risk, says the expert: “Rebelling is life-threatening.”

“Obvious war crimes” under Turkish control

Even in the Turkish-controlled area in the northeast, the approximately 2.1 million people – including Syrian refugees deported from Turkey – are by no means safe. The human rights organisation Human rights monitoring Numerous abuses by the so-called “Syrian National Army” directed against Assad, as well as the official Turkish army cooperating with it, have been documented. “The ongoing abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances of those living under Turkish rule in northern Syria, will continue – unless Turkey itself stops them,” says Adam Coogle, deputy director of Human rights monitoringin the forewordAccording to a study by the organization: “Turkish officials are not just spectators of the attacks, but bear responsibility as an occupying power and, in some cases, have been directly involved in obvious war crimes.”

Repression also in Kurdish areas

Even in the largely autonomous north-eastern Syria governed by the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), there is no complete security. The “People's Protection Units” (PYG), which are affiliated with the PYD and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is banned in Germany and other countries, fought the “Islamic State” (IS) in the past. The PYG is currently involved in armed conflicts with the Turkish army and with forces loyal to Iran. Kurdish and Arab groups in the region are competing for power and influence.

All of this has led the ruling forces there to increase repression against political opponents, according to the study by Bank and Herrschner. They are accused of forced recruitment, extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests and torture in prisons.

The study concluded that Syria is not safe in any region. Carsten Wieland sees it the same way: “I would clearly answer the question of whether Syria is a safe country with 'no' – and that applies to all four regions.”